Tuesday, September 9, 2014

Islamic State: Can its savagery be explained?


Islamic State fighters surround captured Iraqi soldiers (14/06/14)
Since the sudden appearance of the extremist Sunni Islamic State (IS), the group has seized headlines with a shocking level of blood-letting and cruelty - but can its savagery be explained, asks Fawaz A Gerges.
Islamic State has become synonymous with viciousness - beheadings, crucifixions, stonings, massacres, burying victims alive and religious and ethnic cleansing.
While such savagery might seem senseless to the vast majority of civilised human beings, for IS it is a rational choice. It is a conscious decision to terrorise enemies and impress and co-opt new recruits.
IS adheres to a doctrine of total war without limits and constraints - no such thing, for instance, as arbitration or compromise when it comes to settling disputes with even Sunni Islamist rivals. Unlike its parent organisation, al-Qaeda, IS pays no lip service to theology to justify its crimes.
The violence has its roots in what can be identified as two earlier waves, though the scale and intensity of IS' brutality far exceeds either.
The first wave, led by disciples of Sayyid Qutb - a radical Egyptian Islamist regarded as the master theoretician of modern jihadism - targeted pro-Western secular Arab regimes or what they called the "near enemy", and, on balance, showed restraint in the use of political violence .
Beginning with the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1980, this Islamist insurgency dissipated by the end of the 1990s. It had cost some 2,000 lives and saw a large number of militants head to Afghanistan to battle a new global enemy - the Soviet Union.
'Killing machine' The Afghan jihad against the Soviets gave birth to a second wave, with a specific target - the "far enemy", or the United States and, to a lesser extent, Europe.
It was spearheaded by a wealthy Saudi turned revolutionary, Osama Bin Laden.
Bin Laden went to great lengths to rationalise al-Qaeda's attack on the US on 11 September 2001, calling it "defensive jihad", or retaliation against perceived US domination of Muslim societies.
Islamic State fighters parade in Raqqa (image by Islamic State's Raqqa Media Group) Hundreds of jihadists are reported to have swelled IS' ranks in recent weeks
Conscious of the importance of winning hearts and minds, Bin Laden sold his message to Muslims and even Americans as self-defence, not aggression.
This kind of justification, however, carries no weight with IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who cannot care less what the world thinks of his blood-letting.
In fact, he and his cohorts revel in displaying barbarity and coming across as savage.
In contrast to the first two waves, IS actually stresses violent action over theology and theory, and has produced no repertoire of ideas to sustain and nourish its social base. It is a killing machine powered by blood and iron.
Going beyond Bin Laden's doctrine that "when people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature they will like the strong horse", al-Baghdadi's "victory through terrorism" signals to friends and foes that IS is a winning horse. Get out of the way or you will be crushed; join our caravan and make history.
Increasing evidence shows that over the past few months, hundreds, if not thousands, of diehard former Islamist enemies of IS, such as the al-Nusra Front and the Islamic Front, answered al-Baghdadi's call.
'Shock-and-awe' IS' sophisticated outreach campaign appeals to disaffected and deluded young Sunnis worldwide because it is seen as a powerful vanguard that delivers victory and salvation.
Far from abhorring the group's brutality, young recruits are attracted by its shock-and-awe tactics against the enemies of Islam.
Map showing areas of IS control
Its exploits on the battlefield - especially capturing huge swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq, and establishing a caliphate - resonate near and far. Nothing succeeds like success, and IS' recent military gains have brought it a recruitment bonanza.
Muslim men living in Western countries join IS and other extremist groups because they feel part of a greater mission - to resurrect a lost idealised type of caliphate and be part of a tight-knit community with a potent identity.
Initially, many young men from London, Berlin and Paris and elsewhere migrate to the lands of jihad to defend persecuted co-religionists, but they end up in the clutches of IS, doing its evil deeds, such as beheading innocent civilians.
The drivers behind IS' unrestrained extremism can be traced to its origins with al-Qaeda in Iraq, led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who was killed by the Americans in 2006.
Not unlike its predecessor, IS is nourished on an anti-Shia diet and visceral hatred of minorities in general, portraying itself as the spearhead of Sunni Arabs in the fight against sectarian-based regimes in Baghdad and Damascus.
Al-Zarqawi and al-Baghdadi view Shias as infidels, a fifth column in the heart of Islam that must be wiped out - a genocidal worldview.
Following in the footsteps of al-Zarqawi, al-Baghdadi ignored repeated pleas by his mentor Ayman al-Zawahiri, head of al-Qaeda, and other top militants to avoid indiscriminate killing of Shia and, instead, to attack the Shia-dominated and Alawite regimes in Iraq and Syria.
Sights on US? By exploiting the deepening Sunni-Shia rift in Iraq and the sectarian civil war in Syria, al-Baghdadi has built a powerful base of support among rebellious Sunnis and has blended his group into local communities.
He also restructured his military network and co-opted experienced officers of Saddam Hussein's disbanded army who turned IS into a professional sectarian fighting force.
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has threatened to kill US troops if they come to Iraq
IS has so far consistently focused on the Shia and not the "far enemy". The struggle against the US and Europe is distant, not a priority; it has to await liberation at home.
At the height of Israeli bombings of Gaza in August, militants on social media criticised IS for killing Muslims while doing nothing to help the Palestinians.
IS retorted by saying the struggle against the Shia takes priority over everything else.
Now that the US and Europe have joined the conflict against IS, the group will use all its assets in retaliation, including further beheading of hostages. There is also a growing likelihood that it will attack soft diplomatic targets in the Middle East.
While it might want to stage a spectacular operation on the American or European homeland, it is doubtful that IS currently has the capabilities to carry out complex attacks like 9/11.
A few months ago, in response to chatter by his followers, al-Baghdadi acknowledged that his organisation was not equipped to attack the Americans at home.
He said though that he wished the US would deploy boots on the ground so that IS could directly engage the Americans - and kill them.

Apple unveils watch and new iPhones


Apple Watch The Apple Watch offers a range of displays and allows the owner to change its straps

Related Stories

Apple has unveiled a smartwatch - the Apple Watch - its first new product line since the first iPad and the death of its co-founder Steve Jobs.
The device runs apps, acts as a health and fitness tracker and communicates with the iPhone.
While rival smartwatches already exist, experts said Apple had a history of entering sectors relatively late and then changing their direction.
Apple also unveiled two new handsets that are larger than previous models.
The iPhone 6's screen measures 4.7in (11.9cm) and the iPhone 6 Plus's 5.5in (14.0cm) - a change that analysts said should help prevent users migrating to Android.
It also announced a new service called Apple Pay, which chief executive Tim Cook said he hoped would "replace the wallet" in shops.
Watch apps
The Apple Watch is controlled by what Apple calls a "digital crown" - a dial on its side that allows content on its screen to be magnified or scrolled through, and can also be pressed inwards to act as a home button.
The display is a touchscreen that can detect the difference between a light tap and heavier pressure from the user's fingers. In addition, the device runs Siri - Apple's voice-controlled "personal assistant".
It offers a variety of different watchfaces, can alert the user to notifications, act as a heart rate monitor and show maps.
Apple said that apps could be processed on an iPhone, but displayed on the watch in order to extend battery life.
Although some of these features are available from competing products, one observer said the device had the potential to ignite the wearable tech sector.
"I'm sure that for many people, waiting to see what Apple did was a first step before going out and buy a wearable technology product, whether or not it's an Apple one they get," said Tim Coulling, senior analyst at research firm Canalys.
Motorola's president, Rick Osterloh, told the BBC last week that he welcomed the idea of Apple "growing" the smartwatch market, even though it would compete with his own product, the Moto 360.
WATCH: Apple chief executive Tim Cook unveiled the Apple Watch
Mr Coulling added that other rivals probably felt likewise.
"The buzz that Apple's entry will generate about wearables is unquestionable," he explained.
"It has a huge marketing budget and uses slick advertisers, so its launch will generate interest around the whole product segment."
The watch - which comes in three different editions - relies on its user owning an iPhone 5 or more recent model.
It will cost $349 (£216) - which is more than recently announced Android Wear watches from Motorola, Sony and others - and will not be available until "early 2015".
Bigger phones While Apple Watch was the most anticipated product, the company's new handsets are likely to be its biggest earners.
Apple saw its global share of smartphone shipments slip from 13% to 11.7% between the second quarters of 2013 and 2014, according to research firm IDC, while Android's share grew.
iPhone 5S, iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus The new iPhones are bigger and thinner than the previous version
"The main benefit for Apple in going to a larger size of screen is not so much to woo people over to its devices, but to prevent its customers defecting, particularly to devices such as Samsung's Galaxy Note," said John Delaney, head of IDC's European mobility team.
"But one should bear in mind that Apple's decline is relative - the smartphone market has expanded, and most of the expansion has taken place in the lower price bracket that Apple doesn't address."
Apple had previously justified the 3.5in and 4in screen sizes of its existing iPhones as being suited to one-handed use. In 2010, the company's co-founder Steve Jobs went so far as to say "no-one's going to buy" a phone that they could not get a single hand around.
But one expert said a market had developed for so-called phablets.
"Watching video is definitely something that appeals on a bigger display, as well as gaming. And for business customers, having more space to do emails properly and look at and edit presentations helps," said Carolina Milanesi, chief of research at Kantar Worldpanel ComTech.
SMARTPHONE SALES BETWEEN JANUARY AND JULY 2014:
UK US China
(Source: Kantar)
iOS
29.7%
33.5%
15.3%
Android
58.9%
60.0%
82.4%
Windows Phone
9.4%
4.7%
0.9%
Other
2%
1.8%
1.4%
Apple said that the A8 chip featured in the new phones would provide 25% faster compute performance than before.
The improved resolutions - dubbed "retina HD" - mean that the iPhone 6 offers 326 pixels per inch and the iPhone 6 Plus 401ppi. While better than before, the resolutions are still beaten in terms of raw numbers by Samsung's flagships - the Galaxy S5 and Galaxy Note 4 - and the HTC One.
New sensors include a barometer, which Apple said would help fitness apps distinguish whether the owner was running up a mountain or along a flatter surface.
The M8 co-processor can now estimate distances as well, which may should also help provide more accurate readings.
The handsets will be available for sale on 19 September.
INTERACTIVE
  • 1973

    ×

    The Xerox Alto personal workstation

    The Alto was one of the first computers to use a mouse, and an early pioneer of the “desktop” concept.
  • 1984

    ×

    Macintosh 128K

    Apple’s first almost-affordable, mass-market computer was launched with a futuristic ad by Ridley Scott.
  • 1998

    ×

    Audible / MPMan / Rio

    The Rio had just 32MB of memory – enough to store roughly an hour of music.
  • 2001

    ×

    iPod

    Apple launched the original iPod with the slogan '1,000 songs in your pocket'.
  • 1994

    ×
    Weighing half a kilogram and featuring a rather crude touchscreen, the Simon was able to send and receive emails, as well as take notes.
  • 2007

    ×

    iPhone

    At the iPhone’s launch, Steve Jobs told the audience the device was 'five years ahead of any other mobile phone'.
  • 2003

    ×

    Fujitsu Stylistic

    Based upon what used to be known as the 'slate form factor', Fujitsu’s tablet PC could be operated with a pen or connected to a keyboard for use at a desk.
  • 2010

    ×

    iPad

    One million iPads were sold in 28 days after its launch in the US.
  • 2003

    ×

    Fossil Wrist PDA

    Developed in partnership with Microsoft and Palm, the Fossil could deliver traffic and weather reports, among other things.
  • 2014

    ×

    Apple Watch

    The Apple Watch features a health tracker, as well as a new user interface.
Apple Pay
The Apple Pay service depends on an NFC (near field communication) chip featured in both the new phones and watch.
Apple Pay Apple said that US McDonald's restaurants, Whole Foods stores and Walgreens pharmacies would accept Apple Pay
Apple described the service as being "secure" because it worked without Apple needing to store the credit card details itself, or the user having to share their name and card details with the cashier.
iPhone owners will be able to use it by waving their handset above an NFC reader at a shop's till.
Several other firms have tried to pioneer touchless payments, but they have yet to become popular beyond credit and debit cards that include the feature.
"We've been waiting a long time for Apple to get into contactless payments, and its solution is characteristically straightforward for ordinary people," commented Jason Jenkins, director of content at the news site Cnet.
"But with contactless so common in Britain, I have to wonder if Apple has missed the boat here - waving a credit card at a payment reader is hardly a challenge."

MH17 crash: Dutch experts say numerous objects hit plane



Footage emerged on Tuesday showing rebels among the wreckage
Dutch experts say Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 broke up in mid-air after being hit by "objects" that "pierced the plane at high velocity" in July.
The new report also said there was "no evidence of technical or human error".
Correspondents say this matches claims that MH17 was hit by missile shrapnel.
Investigators relied on cockpit data, air traffic control and images, as the crash site in eastern Ukraine remains too dangerous to access amid fighting between government troops and rebels.
The plane was flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur when it crashed in rebel-held territory in eastern Ukraine.
All 298 people on board, most of them from the Netherlands, died when the plane came down, amid reports it was shot down by pro-Russian rebels.
The BBC's Anna Holligan reports takes a close-up look at one of the first copies of the report
The report made no comment on who might have fired the missile.
Both sides in this conflict use the same weapon, reports the BBC's transport correspondent Richard Westcott, and to find out who was responsible investigators would need to determine where the missile was launched.
The cockpit voice recorder recovered from the wreckage of flight MH17 - 9 September 2014 Investigators say the cockpit voice recorder "gave no indication that there was anything abnormal" on board
A piece of the crashed Malaysia Airlines plane in eastern Ukraine - 23 July 2014 The Dutch team analysed photographs of the wreckage that showed a number of pieces with multiple holes
One expert said they should eventually be able to work that out with a combination of radar data and evidence from the scene, our correspondent reports.
A sobering fact highlighted in this report was that three other, very large commercial airliners flew over the same area at around the same time, he adds.
The report from Dutch experts says the plane "broke up in the air probably as the result of structural damage caused by a large number of high-velocity objects that penetrated the aircraft from outside".
The investigators have not visited the crash site because of fighting in the area but they said photographic evidence of the wreckage suggests the plane split into pieces during "an in-flight break up".
Satellite image of MH17 debris site
Map of MH17 debris site
Maintenance history showed the aircraft was airworthy and had no known technical problems when it took off from Amsterdam, the report added.
Experts said it was manned by "a qualified and experienced crew" and that engines were running normally at a speed of 915km/h (567mph) at 33,000ft (cruise altitude).
Radio communications between the pilot and Ukrainian air traffic control confirm that no emergency call was made.
line
Final transmissions from MH17 At 13:08:00 MH17 contacts Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk International Airport (DNP):
MH17 to DNP: Dnipro Radar, Malaysian one seven, flight level 330
DNP to MH17: Malaysian one seven, Dnipro Radar, good day, radar contact
Flight MH17's last transmission was at 13:19:56 when it responded to a navigation request from DNP:
DNP to MH17: Malaysian one seven, due traffic proceed direct to point Romeo November Delta
MH17 to DNP: Romeo November Delta, Malaysian one seven
At 13:20:00, DNP sends MH17 another radar message but there is no response:
DNP to MH17: Malaysian one seven, how do you read me? Malaysian one seven, Dnipro Radar
DNP makes two more requests for contact from MH17 before Russia's Rostov airport (RST) calls in at 13:22:05.
RST to DNP: Listening [to] you, its Rostov
DNP to RST: Rostov, do you observe the Malaysian by... by the response?
RST to DNP: No, it seems that its target started falling apart.
First findings of MH17 crash report
Russians 'operated BUK' in MH17 area
line
Criminal investigation While it is not the final report into the crash, the findings are significant because they are the first official account of what happened, says the BBC's Anna Holligan in the Netherlands.
A separate criminal investigation is being conducted by prosecutors in The Hague, she adds.
Dutch Safety Board Chairman, Tjibbe Joustra, says experts will now try to reconstruct how MH17 came down
Barry Sweeney, whose son Liam died on board flight MH17, told the BBC it was "comforting... to know that nobody suffered" given the speed of the plane's break-up.
"It doesn't really matter who's done it, because they're still dead. If we find out, so be it. Unfortunately we can't do anything about it and we've just got to move on," he said.
Samira Calehr, a Dutch mother who lost two sons in the crash, told AP she wanted those responsible brought to justice "as soon as possible".
"I want to know who killed my children," she said.
Rebel in eastern Ukraine (9 September 2014) The Russian government denies delivering arms to the separatists
Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak welcomed the report, saying it "leads to the strong suspicion that a surface-to-air missile brought MH17 down".
The rebel leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, Aleksandr Zakharchenko, told the Russian Interfax news agency that the separatists did not have the capability to shoot down the plane.
Ukraine's government and several Western leaders say there is strong evidence that pro-Russian separatists shot down the plane with an anti-aircraft system known as Buk.
Russia has consistently denied allegations that it had supplied any missiles or weapons to the rebels.
The search for evidence has been hampered by heavy fighting in the region, and Malaysian Transport Minister Liow Tiong Lai called on both sides to grant investigators full access.
More than 2,600 people have been killed and thousands more wounded since violence between rebels and Ukrainian government forces erupted in April.

Saturday, September 6, 2014

Ebola: How bad can it get?


Dead body removed from home The death toll has passed 2,000 and shows every sign of getting worse
This isn't just the worst single Ebola outbreak in history, it has now killed more than all the others combined.
Healthcare workers are visibly struggling, the response to the outbreak has been damned as "lethally inadequate" and the situation is showing signs of getting considerably worse.
The outbreak has been running all year, but the latest in an ongoing stream of worrying statistics shows 40% of all the deaths have been in just the past three weeks.
So what can we expect in the months, and possibly years, to come?
Taking off Crystal ball gazing can be a dangerous affair.
Particularly as this is uncharted territory, previous outbreaks have been rapidly contained, affecting just dozens of people, this one has already infected more than 3,900.
But the first clues are in the current data.
Dr Christopher Dye, the director of strategy in the office of the director general at the World Health Organization, has the difficult challenge of predicting what will happen next.
He told the BBC: "We're quite worried, I have to say, about the latest data we've just gathered."
Ebola patient Man outside his home just outside the Liberian capital Monrovia
Up until a couple of weeks ago the outbreak was raging in Liberia especially close to the epicentre of the outbreak in Lofa County and in the capital Monrovia.
However, the two other countries primarily hit by the outbreak, Sierra Leone and Guinea, had been relatively stable. Numbers of new cases were not falling, but they were not soaring either.
That is no longer true, with a surge in cases everywhere except some parts of rural Sierra Leone in the districts of Kenema and Kailahun.
"In most other areas, cases and deaths appear to rising, that came as a shock to me," said Dr Dye.
Cumulative deaths - up to 5 September
Ebola deaths
Only going up The stories of healthcare workers being stretched beyond breaking point are countless.
A lack of basic protective gear such as gloves has been widely reported.

Start Quote

If current trends persist we would be seeing not hundreds of cases per week, but thousands of cases per week and that is terribly disturbing”
Dr Christopher Dye World Health Organization
The charity Medecins Sans Frontieres has an isolation facility with 160 beds in Monrovia. But it says the queues are growing and they need another 800 beds to deal with the number of people who are already sick.
This is not a scenario for containing an epidemic, but fuelling one.
Dr Dye's tentative forecasts are grim: "At the moment we're seeing about 500 new cases each week, those numbers appear to be increasing.
"I've just projected about five weeks into the future and if current trends persist we would be seeing not hundreds of cases per week, but thousands of cases per week and that is terribly disturbing.
"The situation is bad and we have to prepare for it getting worse"
The World Health Organization is using an educated guess of 20,000 cases before the end, in order to plan the scale of the response.
But the true potential of the outbreak is unknown and the WHO figure has been described to me as optimistic by some scientists.
International spread?
Map: Ebola outbreak in West Africa
The outbreak started in Gueckedou in Guinea, on the border with Liberia and Sierra Leone.
But it has spread significantly with the WHO reporting that "for the first time since the outbreak began" that the majority of cases in the past week were outside of that epicentre with the capital cities becoming major centres of Ebola.
Additionally one person took the infection to Nigeria, where it has since spread in a small cluster and there has been an isolated case in Senegal.
Prof Simon Hay, from the University of Oxford, will publish his scientific analysis of the changing face of Ebola outbreaks in the next week.
He warns that as the total number of cases increases, so does the risk of international spread.
He told me: "I think you're going to have more and more of these individual cases seeding into new areas, continued flows into Senegal, Cote d'Ivoire, and all the countries in between, so I'm not very optimistic at the moment that we're containing this epidemic."
Children Children watch as another dead body is taken from their village
There is always the risk that one of these cases could arrive in Europe or north America.
However, richer countries have the facilities to prevent an isolated case becoming an uncontrolled outbreak.
The worry is that other African countries with poor resources would not cope and find themselves in a similar situation to Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.
"Nigeria is the one I look at with great concern, if things started to get out of control in Nigeria I really think that, because of its connectedness and size, that could be quite alarming," said Prof Hay.
End game? It is also unclear when this outbreak will be over.
Officially the World Health Organization is saying the outbreak can be contained in six to nine months. But that is based on getting the resources to tackle the outbreak, which are currently stretched too thinly to contain Ebola as it stands.
There have been nearly 4,000 cases so far, cases are increasing exponentially and there is a potentially vulnerable population in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea in excess of 20 million.

Ebola casualties

Up to 5 September

2,105
Ebola deaths - probable, confirmed and suspected
  • 1,089 Liberia
  • 517 Guinea
  • 491 Sierra Leone
  • 8 Nigeria
Getty
Prof Neil Ferguson, the director of the UK Medical Research Council's centre for outbreak analysis and modelling at Imperial College London is providing data analysis for the World Health Organization.
He is convinced that the three countries will eventually get on top of the outbreak, but not without help from the rest of the world.
"The authorities are completely overwhelmed, all the trends are the epidemic is increasing, it's still growing exponentially, so there's certainly no reason for optimism.
"It is hard to make a long-term prognosis, but this is certainly something we'll be dealing with in 2015.
"I can well imagine that unless there is a ramp-up of the response on the ground, we'll have flair ups of cases for several months and possibly years."
It is certainly a time-frame which could see an experimental Ebola vaccine, which began safety testing this week, being used on the front line.
If the early trials are successful then healthcare workers could be vaccinated in November this year.
Here forever But there are is also a fear being raised by some virologists that Ebola may never be contained.
Prof Jonathan Ball, a virologist at the University of Nottingham, describes the situation as "desperate".
His concern is that the virus is being given its first major opportunity to adapt to thrive in people, due to the large number of human to human transmission of the virus during this outbreak of unprecedented scale.
Map showing Ebola outbreaks since 1976
Ebola is thought to come from fruit bats, humans are not its preferred host.
But like HIV and influenza, Ebola's genetic code is a strand of RNA. Think of RNA as the less stable cousin of DNA, which is where we keep out genetic information.
It means Ebola virus has a high rate of mutation and with mutation comes the possibility of adapting.
Prof Ball argues: "It is increasing exponentially and the fatality rate seems to be decreasing, but why?
"Is it better medical care, earlier intervention or is the virus adapting to humans and becoming less pathogenic? As a virologist that's what I think is happening."
There is a relationship between how deadly a virus is and how easily it spreads. Generally speaking if a virus is less likely to kill you, then you are more likely to spread it - although smallpox was a notable exemption.
Prof Ball said "it really wouldn't surprise me" if Ebola adapted, the death rate fell to around 5% and the outbreak never really ended.
"It is like HIV, which has been knocking away at human to human transmission for hundreds of years before eventually finding the right combo of beneficial mutations to spread through human populations."

Why Icelanders love an explosive eruption


Bardarbunga volcano
Do you remember that feeling of being a kid, running after your older siblings and you just couldn't keep up? Your little feet would move as fast as they could, but still you'd lag behind? Well, that's how I feel these days - the reason being a volcano.
Every morning I set my alarm for 06:00, not to jump in the shower, but to refresh every website with volcano news from my home country, Iceland. Since 16 August, there have been thousands of earthquakes beneath Europe's largest glacier, Vatnajokull, which covers 3,400 sq miles (8,800 sq km) in south-east Iceland.
Scientists believe that this seismic activity is caused by an enormous amount of magma moving around under the Earth's crust - it might even be moving from one volcanic system to another.
A small eruption started last week, took a break and started again on Friday 29 August with increased force. The fissure is just north of the glacier, so it's only normal lava flow. It's different if there is an eruption underneath a glacier, a sub glacial eruption - then the magma explodes on contact with the ice and out comes ash.
Eyjafjallajokull Eyjafjallajokull - difficult to pronounce, but it did become a buzzword in 2010
Hold on - jokull, ash - does that remind you of something? "Volcano, I think I'll call you Kevin." That was comedian Jon Stewart's reaction after watching reporters from just about every major TV station in the world try in vain to pronounce the name of the Icelandic volcano that trashed the travel arrangements of millions of people in April 2010.
The huge ash cloud from that eruption shut down much of Europe's airspace for six days, leading to the cancellation of 100,000 flights. Even US President Barack Obama couldn't fly. He missed the funeral of the late president of Poland, so did Angela Merkel, the German chancellor and Nicolas Sarkozy, the president of France.
Eyjafjallajokull was fourth on Time Magazine's list of top 10 buzzwords for 2010, but the airlines weren't happy - the total cost of the shutdown was estimated to have been around $1.7bn (£1bn).
Thora Arnorsdottir Like many Icelanders, Thora Arnorsdottir loves the country's volcanoes
Now, only four years later, it seems it's time to prepare for more disruption. Geological activity comes in waves, and Iceland seems to be in one such phase now.
The island is located on the middle of the North-Atlantic ridge and for that reason it is being torn apart. Half of the country belongs to the North American tectonic plate and the other half to the Eurasian one. They move half an inch (1.2cm) or so per year in opposite directions, on average. It looks like 2014 is going to be a 20-inch (50cm) year.
That doesn't mean Iceland is actually splitting in two, because enough magma always comes up to fill in the gap. It's not getting larger either, because the Atlantic Ocean nibbles from the shores at a similar pace.
The theory is that just beneath Vatnajokull glacier, there is a hot spot, which has nothing to do with internet connections, but connection to the Earth's mantle. Supposedly, this is one of the few places on Earth where such a hot spot exists and that's one reason why a third of the lava that has run over the planet in the last 500 years has been in Iceland.
Oh, and here's the icing on the cake. The name of the volcano system involved is Bardarbunga-Dyngjujokull. Beautiful, isn't it? Looks like the big sister of Eyjafjallajokull, alias Kevin.
Iceland graphic
Map taken from the website of the Icelandic Met Office (IMO) on 24 August 2014 of a manually processed map showing recent earthquakes around the Bardarbunga volcano since the onset of this seismic event on 16 August 2014 Icelandic Met Office map of earthquakes around Bardarbunga between 16 and 24 August
Here's an odd thing. Even though volcanic eruptions have had terrible consequences through the ages, Icelanders love their volcanoes. They name their daughters after them, like Hekla and Katla.
They respect them. There's just something majestic about volcanoes, like having a lion in the house. We know they can be dangerous, but we've learned to live with them.
Our country is young and dynamic, still being moulded and shaped by nature. Maps have to be changed every few years because of the continuous seismic movement, appearances of new craters and the ever-changing coastal line and river flow.
Icelanders exchange stories about where they were when this or that eruption happened, we all tune in to the National Broadcast Service Radio when we feel a robust earthquake, to follow the story. How big was it? Was it just an earthquake or a warning that Mount Hekla is about to erupt? Is it maybe Mount Katla's turn now?
Sign to Hekla
The highlands around the Vatnajokull glacier have been evacuated and the few thousand inhabitants in the northern part, where the flood would probably come down, are alert and ready to leave their homes in an instant. It comes without saying that if glowing hot magma finds its way up to the surface under a glacier, an enormous amount of ice will melt - and that water has to go somewhere.
So for the past couple of weeks I've been refreshing websites and messaging my friends and family: Has it started? Not yet? Now? What about now? Or now? Most foreigners thought it was because I was worried about them, but that's not the reason. The capital, Reykjavik, is hundreds of miles away and it's very unlikely that anyone there would be in harm's way.
People looking at Eyjafjallajokull Eruptions are good for the tourism industry
No, the reason is very selfish. I'm just anxious about not being there to see it with my own eyes. It's great having the opportunity to spend a semester at Yale as a World Fellow, but for a seasoned Icelandic TV reporter, it's almost unbearable to imagine that I'll miss the Bardarbunga-Dyngjujokull eruption.
I follow my colleagues who are already camping out there, following the forces of nature at work. New land is being created and they are just so excited about it.
At this moment I'm thrown back to my childhood of growing up with four older brothers and trying my best to keep up with them moving as fast as I can on my little feet, but not keeping up.
While you may be hoping that this eruption will be over soon and no ash will be a threat to any jet engines, in order to save a lot of people a lot of trouble and a lot of airlines a lot of money, my only wish is this:
Dear Bardarbunga volcano system,
Can you please slow down and hold your breath until 15 December, so that I, your loyal admirer, can witness your spectacular show?
Yours truly,
Thora

Sierra Leone's Ebola lockdown will not help, says MSF


A woman washes clothes in the Kroo town slum in Freetown on August 13 Analysts say enforcing the lockdown in crowded areas will be difficult
A three-day lockdown announced by Sierra Leone to combat Ebola will not help contain the virus, medical charity Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) says.
The charity said a lockdown would force people underground, destroy trust between doctors and the public and ultimately help spread the disease.
Sierra Leone officials say the measure, due to begin on 19 September, will let health workers isolate new cases.
About 2,100 people in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea have so far died.
MSF, whose staff are helping to tackle the outbreak, said in a statement that quarantines and lockdowns "end up driving people underground and jeopardising the trust between people and health providers".
"This leads to the concealment of potential cases and ends up spreading the disease further," the group said.

Ebola casualties

Up to 5 September

2,105
Ebola deaths - probable, confirmed and suspected
  • 1,089 Liberia
  • 517 Guinea
  • 491 Sierra Leone
  • 8 Nigeria
Getty
Sierra Leonean officials earlier said more than 20,000 people would be deployed to make sure residents stayed indoors.
Health Ministry spokesman Sidie Yahya Tunis told the BBC he did not expect the public to object.
"You follow or else you'll be breaking the law. If you disobey then you are disobeying the president," he said.
The BBC's West Africa correspondent Thomas Fessy says the Sierra Leone population's willingness to obey will be key for the plan to succeed.
A forcible implementation is likely to raise human rights issues and could potentially spark violent demonstrations, he says.
Last month, Liberia sealed off a large slum in the capital, Monrovia, for more than a week in an attempt to contain the virus.
The disease infects humans through close contact with infected animals, including chimpanzees, fruit bats and forest antelope.
It then spreads between humans by direct contact with infected blood, bodily fluids or organs, or indirectly through contact with contaminated environments.
Officials in Nigeria have meanwhile decided to reopen schools in the country from 22 September. They were closed as a precaution to prevent the spread of the virus.

Al-Shabab names new leader after Godane death in US strike


Al-Shabab militants. File photo Al-Shabab fighters want to overthrow the UN-backed Somali government
Somalia's Islamist group al-Shabab has named Ahmad Umar as successor to former leader Ahmed Abdi Godane, who was killed in a US air strike.
The group announced the move in an online statement, vowing to take revenge for Godane's death.
Somalia's authorities earlier put the country on alert for possible retaliatory attacks by al-Shabab.
The alert came as the US confirmed the death of Godane in air strikes south of Mogadishu on Monday night.
'Bitter consequences' Little is known about Ahmad Umar, who is also known as Abu Ubaidah.
Abu Mohammed, one of al-Shabab's commanders, said the decision to appoint him was unanimous.
Ahmed Abdi Godane - undated photo The US confirmed Godane was killed in an air strike on Monday night south of Mogadishu
In a statement, al-Shabab also warned: "Avenging the death of our scholars and leaders is a binding obligation on our shoulders that we will never relinquish nor forget no matter how long it takes."
"By the permission of Allah, you will surely taste the bitter consequences of your actions."
The announcement of the new leader came just minutes after al-Shabab themselves confirmed the death of Godane.
Earlier on Saturday, Somali National Security Minister Kalif Ahmed Ereg said old reporters: "Security agencies have obtained information indicating that al-Shabab is now planning to carry out desperate attacks against medical facilities, education centres and other government facilities."
Mr Ereg "congratulated the Somali people" on Godane's death, adding: "The security forces are ready to counter their attacks and we call on people to help the security forces in standing against violent acts."
line
Ahmed Abdi Godane:
  • US put $7m (£4m) bounty on his head in 2012
  • Pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda in 2009
  • Became al-Shabab's top commander after US air strike killed his predecessor Aden Hashi Ayro in 2008
  • Sentenced to death in absentia for 2008 attack in Somaliland's capital, Hargeisa
  • Studied in Sudan and Pakistan, where he became radicalised
  • Said to have fought in Afghanistan
  • Was reputed to be a good orator and poet
  • Also known as Mukhtar Abu Zubair
Ahmed Abdi Godane profile
line
Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud issued a statement on Friday urging militants to embrace peace after the death of their leader.
He announced a 45-day amnesty for militants who were willing to renounce the group.
Godane was one of the US state department's most wanted men.
It had placed a bounty of $7m (£4.2m) on his head.
African Union Brigade General Dick Olum with an al-Shabab flag after its forces took the town of Buulomareer, 31 Aug An African Union general with an al-Shabab flag after its forces took the town of Buulomareer
There are few indications of who may be named to replace Godane.
The US has supported the African Union (AU) force that has driven al-Shabab out of the capital Mogadishu and other towns since 2011.
The al-Qaeda-linked fighters want to overthrow the UN-backed Somali government and frequently attack government targets as well as neighbouring countries that provide troops to the AU force.
The al-Shabab leader had publicly claimed the group's responsibility for the deadly Westgate shopping centre attack in Kenya in September last year.

Ukraine crisis: Ceasefire is 'largely holding'


The BBC's Fergal Keane in Mariupol: "Today the guns are silent"
The Ukrainian and Russian presidents have agreed that a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine is "largely holding".
Ukraine's Petro Poroshenko and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin spoke by phone to discuss steps to make Friday's truce durable.
The comments come despite reports of shootings by both pro-Russian rebels and Ukrainian government troops.
Meanwhile, Russia vowed to respond if the European Union imposed new sanctions over the Ukraine crisis.
The EU says the sanctions, targeting more Russian individuals, will be introduced on Monday but could be later suspended if Russia withdraws troops from eastern Ukraine and observes a current truce.
Russia has repeatedly denied accusations by Ukraine and the West that it has been sending regular troops into eastern Ukraine to help the rebels.
Some 2,600 people have died in fighting after pro-Russian rebels seized towns in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions in April - a month after Russia's annexation of the southern Crimean peninsula.
'Fighters ambushed' In a statement Mr Poroshenko also said that the two presidents had also stressed the need "to maximise the involvement" of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) in monitoring the truce.
A destroyed armoured vehicle near Mariupol, south-eastern Ukraine. Photo: 6 September 2014 Ukrainian forces have been losing ground to the rebels in the past two weeks
A pro-Russian separatist looks through binoculars on the outskirts of Donetsk. Photo: 6 September 2014 Both sides are keeping a watchful eyes on their positions
A woman walks at her destroyed house in the village of Kominternove, eastern Ukraine. Photo: 6 September 2014 Months of heavy clashes have devastated eastern Ukraine, leaving many people homeless
People enjoy the sun on a beach in Mariupol, south-eastern Ukraine. Photo: 6 September 2014 Despite the tensions, some sense of normality appears to be returning to Mariupol
The two leaders also discussed ways of co-operating in delivering humanitarian aid to the region.
In his turn, President Putin said in a statement that an agreement was reached to "continue dialogue".
The ceasefire deal was signed during talks between representatives of Ukraine, Russia, the OSCE and the separatist rebels in Minsk, Belarus.
The truce came into effect at 15:00 GMT on Friday.
There were no reports of major fighting in the east overnight.
However, the spokesman for Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, Andriy Lysenko, said on Saturday that the rebels had fired 10 times on Ukrainian troops since the truce.
Unconfirmed reports also say a number of fighters from Ukraine's Aydar battalion were ambushed and killed after the ceasefire.
Meanwhile, the rebel leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, Aleksandr Zakharchenko, said the truce was "not being fully observed" and that rebels had been subjected to shelling in the town of Amvrosiyivka near Donetsk.
Also the International Committee of the Red Cross said in a tweet: that aid trucks on their way to Lugansk had been forced to turn back by shelling, without giving any further details.
However, the BBC's Fergal Keane tweeted from Mariupol that the ceasefire was holding there.
Our correspondent also spoke to Andriy Biletskiy, the commander of Ukraine's Azov battalion, who said he believed fighting would resume within "five to seven days".
"We will see how the situation develops," he said. "If it was a tactical move there is nothing wrong with it... if it's an attempt to reach an agreement concerning Ukrainian soil with separatists then obviously it's a betrayal."
A BBC crew that travelled to Donetsk airport on Saturday morning heard a few gunshots and small explosions but residents said the night had been quiet.
'Party of war' Earlier on Saturday, the Russian foreign ministry said there "will undoubtedly be a reaction from our side" if the new EU sanctions were passed.
The fresh sanctions would add another 24 to the list of people barred from entering the EU and whose assets have been frozen.
Among them would be the rebel leadership in the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, officials in Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in March, and Russian "decision-makers and oligarchs", European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and European Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso said in a statement.
The Russian foreign ministry said the EU was "practically sending a signal of direct support to the 'party of war' in Kiev".

Friday, September 5, 2014

Rory McIlroy misses out on early BMW Championship lead


Rory McIlroy

BMW Championship, first round (US unless stated)

-3 McIlroy (NI), Spieth, Woodland -2 Horschel, Henley, Kaymer (Ger), Hadley, Chappell, Every, DeLaet (Can), Garcia (Spa)
Rory McIlroy shares a three-way lead in the opening round of the BMW Championship in Denver.
Bogeys on the Northern Irishman's 15th and 16th holes saw him surrender a two-shot advantage to stay at three under par with US Ryder Cup player Jordan Spieth and compatriot Gary Woodland.
But poor weather saw play suspended with nine players still to finish.
McIlroy, 25, is bidding to reclaim the lead in the PGA Tour's FedEx Cup ahead of next week's finale.
The leaders are in front of eight players on two under par, including European Ryder Cup team member Martin Kaymer.
Sweden's Henrik Stenson is also on two under but is among those still to complete his first round.

FedEx Cup top five after two of four play-off events

1. Chris Kirk (US)
4,154 points
2. Rory McIlroy (NI)
3,335
3. Hunter Mahan (US)
3,311
4. Jimmy Walker (US)
2,823
5. Matt Kuchar (US)
2,618
England's Justin Rose shot a one-under-par 69 with US Ryder Cup players Phil Mickelson and Jim Furyk finishing even par.
McIlroy blamed "sloppy" bogeys for preventing him from taking the outright lead.
He added: "I'm a little frustrated coming off the course, because I feel like it should have been better than what I finished."
The top 70 players on the FedEx Cup points list  after the Deutsche Bank Championship qualified for this week's event at Cherry Hills Country Club in Denver.
Only the top 30 players will advance to the Tour Championship finale in Atlanta, which begins on 11 September.
American Chris Kirk - who holds the overall lead after two of the four FedEx Cup play-off events - hit a one-over-par opening round of 71.

Aviva Premiership: Jeremy Guscott on the new rugby union season


 Saracens and England number eight Billy Vunipola, Bath-bound South Sydney and England rugby league star Sam Burgess and Northampton and Wales wing George North
This season promises to be even more exciting than normal because it leads into the 2015 World Cup in England. 
There will be constant references to it being "X" days away, and all paths lead to Twickenham for the next 12 months.
Every match this season will be viewed in that sort of context - every good bit of play and every bad bit of play will be scrutinised with the World Cup in mind.

How the next year pans out

What? When?
Premiership and Pro12 seasons get under way
Friday, 5 September
European Rugby Champions Cup kicks off
Friday, 17 October
Autumn Tests begin
Saturday, 8 November
Six Nations
6 February to 21 March 2015
European Champions Cup final
Saturday, 2 May 2015
Premiership final
Saturday, 30 May 2015
Pro12 final
Weekend of 29-31 May 2015
Rugby World Cup in England
18 September to 31 October 2015
The Premiership seems to gain momentum every year, the Pro12 will be more competitive this season as teams strive to secure a European place and the new European Rugby Champions Cup looks like being a really tight, tense and emotional affair - there are no easy games now it's been trimmed to 20 teams.
You used to look at certain pools and think the top two will go through for certain, because the other teams were quite weak, but not any longer.
It's going to be full metal jacket in the European competition - there's no hiding place now.

Slammin' Sam's on his way...

I think we're all holding our breath waiting for the arrival of Sam Burgess at Bath in October after the end of the Australia NRL season.
Regardless of me being a Bath person, I think all rugby fans have an interest in how this rugby league superstar is going to transfer his undoubted skillset to union and how he goes about becoming a top-class player in the 15-man code.
Sam Burgess in action for England against France at the 2013 Rugby League World Cup
Burgess starred for England at the 2013 Rugby League World Cup
That is the biggest question - how is the 25-year-old going to apply his skills in a foreign environment, and how quickly will he do it?
Will he make the England World Cup squad? And if so will he do it at inside centre, where he is expected to start his career at Bath?
His size and power alone will not guarantee success, it will be his skills and reading of the game that will determine that.
The success of New Zealand cross-code star Sonny Bill Williams suggests his running and off-loading game will make an impression because that is transferrable.
But what we don't know yet is what his game understanding will be like because tactically and technically it's very different.
He will carry the ball fewer times than he does in rugby league but then they don't go through 15 phases in league, plus there are the technical skills to pick up at the breakdown.
Burgess needs to be reconditioned physically for the different requirements of union and pick up the complexities of the game - but on the most basic level his skillset should be transferrable.

Any other exciting arrivals in the Premiership?

Brad Thorn on the charge for the All Blacks against Australia
Thorn was part of the New Zealand side that won the 2011 World Cup on home soil
Speaking of league greats who have made a big impression in union, Leicester have signed former All Blacks second row Brad Thorn - talk about transferrable skills and experience.
He may be 39 but he has literally won it all, and in both codes too.
In addition to his physical attributes he brings so much experience to an already great organisation.

Brad Thorn - cross-code great

Rugby league Rugby union
Brisbane Broncos: 200 games; Australian Super League title 1997; NRL title 1998, 2000, 2006
Canterbury: NPC titles 2001, 2004
Queensland: 14 appearances; State of Origin wins 1998 and 1999
Crusaders: Super Rugby title 2008
Leinster: Heineken Cup title 2012
Australia: Eight Kangaroo caps
New Zealand: 59 All Black caps; 2011 World Cup winner; Tri-Nations titles 2003, 2008, 2010
He's not the only ex-All Black arriving over here, with Piri Weepu joining newly promoted London Welsh in the Premiership and Mils Muliaina - one of only five players to win 100 caps for New Zealand - joining Irish province Connacht in the Pro12.
I'm really looking forward to seeing Wales back James Hook in the Premiership for the first time.
Hook has joined Gloucester from French side Perpignan and he is a superb player. Most of us can't work out why he hasn't started more often for Wales - 27 of his 76 caps have come off the bench.
Gloucester have strengthened their tight five this season, bringing in players of the quality of former Wales hooker Richard Hibbard and ex-New Zealand prop John Afoa.
The big question is, can Hook deliver the finishing touches and enable the Cherry and Whites to bounce back from their poor season last year?

The North star and Billy the Kid

We're fortunate in British and Irish rugby because we have some wonderful young talent in our game, none more so than Wales and Northampton winger George North.
He is still so young - only 22 - but this kid's a real superstar and it is not just because of his pace, power and size, but because he delivers on that promise so consistently, and it is great to see a truly world class player playing in the Premiership.
Another youngster I'm looking forwards to seeing make a real impression this season is Saracens and England number eight Billy Vunipola.
We all like to see big tries, big carries and big hits, and Vunipola brings that explosiveness and unpredictability in large amounts - he definitely has the X factor.
One big absence this year will be Ireland's Brian O'Driscoll. He's one of those once-in-a-lifetime players and the Irish will need Johnny Sexton to be the best he can be and be the senior pro.

Do Grand Slams lead to World Cups?

We'll all be looking for pointers to the World Cup in this season's Six Nations.
In 1991 we won the Grand Slam and got to the final and the England team that won the 2003 World Cup won the Grand Slam that year as well.

Jerry's predictions

Premiership
Northampton to retain their title
Pro12
Leinster to do likewise
Six Nations
England to take the crown
Winning the tournament is no guarantee of success - France won in 2007 for instance and England were champions in 2011 but had a dismal World Cup.
But if you can secure a Grand Slam - winning all five of your matches - then there's no doubt it gives you momentum, and that's so important in sport.
England have three home games, which is always an advantage, plus a tricky one against Ireland in Dublin and a difficult match away to Wales first up.
Wales are too inconsistent for me so if England can win that game then they can go on to earn a Grand Slam and set themselves up perfectly for the World Cup on home soil.