Showing posts with label POLITICS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label POLITICS. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

Islamic State: Can its savagery be explained?


Islamic State fighters surround captured Iraqi soldiers (14/06/14)
Since the sudden appearance of the extremist Sunni Islamic State (IS), the group has seized headlines with a shocking level of blood-letting and cruelty - but can its savagery be explained, asks Fawaz A Gerges.
Islamic State has become synonymous with viciousness - beheadings, crucifixions, stonings, massacres, burying victims alive and religious and ethnic cleansing.
While such savagery might seem senseless to the vast majority of civilised human beings, for IS it is a rational choice. It is a conscious decision to terrorise enemies and impress and co-opt new recruits.
IS adheres to a doctrine of total war without limits and constraints - no such thing, for instance, as arbitration or compromise when it comes to settling disputes with even Sunni Islamist rivals. Unlike its parent organisation, al-Qaeda, IS pays no lip service to theology to justify its crimes.
The violence has its roots in what can be identified as two earlier waves, though the scale and intensity of IS' brutality far exceeds either.
The first wave, led by disciples of Sayyid Qutb - a radical Egyptian Islamist regarded as the master theoretician of modern jihadism - targeted pro-Western secular Arab regimes or what they called the "near enemy", and, on balance, showed restraint in the use of political violence .
Beginning with the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1980, this Islamist insurgency dissipated by the end of the 1990s. It had cost some 2,000 lives and saw a large number of militants head to Afghanistan to battle a new global enemy - the Soviet Union.
'Killing machine' The Afghan jihad against the Soviets gave birth to a second wave, with a specific target - the "far enemy", or the United States and, to a lesser extent, Europe.
It was spearheaded by a wealthy Saudi turned revolutionary, Osama Bin Laden.
Bin Laden went to great lengths to rationalise al-Qaeda's attack on the US on 11 September 2001, calling it "defensive jihad", or retaliation against perceived US domination of Muslim societies.
Islamic State fighters parade in Raqqa (image by Islamic State's Raqqa Media Group) Hundreds of jihadists are reported to have swelled IS' ranks in recent weeks
Conscious of the importance of winning hearts and minds, Bin Laden sold his message to Muslims and even Americans as self-defence, not aggression.
This kind of justification, however, carries no weight with IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who cannot care less what the world thinks of his blood-letting.
In fact, he and his cohorts revel in displaying barbarity and coming across as savage.
In contrast to the first two waves, IS actually stresses violent action over theology and theory, and has produced no repertoire of ideas to sustain and nourish its social base. It is a killing machine powered by blood and iron.
Going beyond Bin Laden's doctrine that "when people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature they will like the strong horse", al-Baghdadi's "victory through terrorism" signals to friends and foes that IS is a winning horse. Get out of the way or you will be crushed; join our caravan and make history.
Increasing evidence shows that over the past few months, hundreds, if not thousands, of diehard former Islamist enemies of IS, such as the al-Nusra Front and the Islamic Front, answered al-Baghdadi's call.
'Shock-and-awe' IS' sophisticated outreach campaign appeals to disaffected and deluded young Sunnis worldwide because it is seen as a powerful vanguard that delivers victory and salvation.
Far from abhorring the group's brutality, young recruits are attracted by its shock-and-awe tactics against the enemies of Islam.
Map showing areas of IS control
Its exploits on the battlefield - especially capturing huge swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq, and establishing a caliphate - resonate near and far. Nothing succeeds like success, and IS' recent military gains have brought it a recruitment bonanza.
Muslim men living in Western countries join IS and other extremist groups because they feel part of a greater mission - to resurrect a lost idealised type of caliphate and be part of a tight-knit community with a potent identity.
Initially, many young men from London, Berlin and Paris and elsewhere migrate to the lands of jihad to defend persecuted co-religionists, but they end up in the clutches of IS, doing its evil deeds, such as beheading innocent civilians.
The drivers behind IS' unrestrained extremism can be traced to its origins with al-Qaeda in Iraq, led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who was killed by the Americans in 2006.
Not unlike its predecessor, IS is nourished on an anti-Shia diet and visceral hatred of minorities in general, portraying itself as the spearhead of Sunni Arabs in the fight against sectarian-based regimes in Baghdad and Damascus.
Al-Zarqawi and al-Baghdadi view Shias as infidels, a fifth column in the heart of Islam that must be wiped out - a genocidal worldview.
Following in the footsteps of al-Zarqawi, al-Baghdadi ignored repeated pleas by his mentor Ayman al-Zawahiri, head of al-Qaeda, and other top militants to avoid indiscriminate killing of Shia and, instead, to attack the Shia-dominated and Alawite regimes in Iraq and Syria.
Sights on US? By exploiting the deepening Sunni-Shia rift in Iraq and the sectarian civil war in Syria, al-Baghdadi has built a powerful base of support among rebellious Sunnis and has blended his group into local communities.
He also restructured his military network and co-opted experienced officers of Saddam Hussein's disbanded army who turned IS into a professional sectarian fighting force.
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has threatened to kill US troops if they come to Iraq
IS has so far consistently focused on the Shia and not the "far enemy". The struggle against the US and Europe is distant, not a priority; it has to await liberation at home.
At the height of Israeli bombings of Gaza in August, militants on social media criticised IS for killing Muslims while doing nothing to help the Palestinians.
IS retorted by saying the struggle against the Shia takes priority over everything else.
Now that the US and Europe have joined the conflict against IS, the group will use all its assets in retaliation, including further beheading of hostages. There is also a growing likelihood that it will attack soft diplomatic targets in the Middle East.
While it might want to stage a spectacular operation on the American or European homeland, it is doubtful that IS currently has the capabilities to carry out complex attacks like 9/11.
A few months ago, in response to chatter by his followers, al-Baghdadi acknowledged that his organisation was not equipped to attack the Americans at home.
He said though that he wished the US would deploy boots on the ground so that IS could directly engage the Americans - and kill them.

MH17 crash: Dutch experts say numerous objects hit plane



Footage emerged on Tuesday showing rebels among the wreckage
Dutch experts say Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 broke up in mid-air after being hit by "objects" that "pierced the plane at high velocity" in July.
The new report also said there was "no evidence of technical or human error".
Correspondents say this matches claims that MH17 was hit by missile shrapnel.
Investigators relied on cockpit data, air traffic control and images, as the crash site in eastern Ukraine remains too dangerous to access amid fighting between government troops and rebels.
The plane was flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur when it crashed in rebel-held territory in eastern Ukraine.
All 298 people on board, most of them from the Netherlands, died when the plane came down, amid reports it was shot down by pro-Russian rebels.
The BBC's Anna Holligan reports takes a close-up look at one of the first copies of the report
The report made no comment on who might have fired the missile.
Both sides in this conflict use the same weapon, reports the BBC's transport correspondent Richard Westcott, and to find out who was responsible investigators would need to determine where the missile was launched.
The cockpit voice recorder recovered from the wreckage of flight MH17 - 9 September 2014 Investigators say the cockpit voice recorder "gave no indication that there was anything abnormal" on board
A piece of the crashed Malaysia Airlines plane in eastern Ukraine - 23 July 2014 The Dutch team analysed photographs of the wreckage that showed a number of pieces with multiple holes
One expert said they should eventually be able to work that out with a combination of radar data and evidence from the scene, our correspondent reports.
A sobering fact highlighted in this report was that three other, very large commercial airliners flew over the same area at around the same time, he adds.
The report from Dutch experts says the plane "broke up in the air probably as the result of structural damage caused by a large number of high-velocity objects that penetrated the aircraft from outside".
The investigators have not visited the crash site because of fighting in the area but they said photographic evidence of the wreckage suggests the plane split into pieces during "an in-flight break up".
Satellite image of MH17 debris site
Map of MH17 debris site
Maintenance history showed the aircraft was airworthy and had no known technical problems when it took off from Amsterdam, the report added.
Experts said it was manned by "a qualified and experienced crew" and that engines were running normally at a speed of 915km/h (567mph) at 33,000ft (cruise altitude).
Radio communications between the pilot and Ukrainian air traffic control confirm that no emergency call was made.
line
Final transmissions from MH17 At 13:08:00 MH17 contacts Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk International Airport (DNP):
MH17 to DNP: Dnipro Radar, Malaysian one seven, flight level 330
DNP to MH17: Malaysian one seven, Dnipro Radar, good day, radar contact
Flight MH17's last transmission was at 13:19:56 when it responded to a navigation request from DNP:
DNP to MH17: Malaysian one seven, due traffic proceed direct to point Romeo November Delta
MH17 to DNP: Romeo November Delta, Malaysian one seven
At 13:20:00, DNP sends MH17 another radar message but there is no response:
DNP to MH17: Malaysian one seven, how do you read me? Malaysian one seven, Dnipro Radar
DNP makes two more requests for contact from MH17 before Russia's Rostov airport (RST) calls in at 13:22:05.
RST to DNP: Listening [to] you, its Rostov
DNP to RST: Rostov, do you observe the Malaysian by... by the response?
RST to DNP: No, it seems that its target started falling apart.
First findings of MH17 crash report
Russians 'operated BUK' in MH17 area
line
Criminal investigation While it is not the final report into the crash, the findings are significant because they are the first official account of what happened, says the BBC's Anna Holligan in the Netherlands.
A separate criminal investigation is being conducted by prosecutors in The Hague, she adds.
Dutch Safety Board Chairman, Tjibbe Joustra, says experts will now try to reconstruct how MH17 came down
Barry Sweeney, whose son Liam died on board flight MH17, told the BBC it was "comforting... to know that nobody suffered" given the speed of the plane's break-up.
"It doesn't really matter who's done it, because they're still dead. If we find out, so be it. Unfortunately we can't do anything about it and we've just got to move on," he said.
Samira Calehr, a Dutch mother who lost two sons in the crash, told AP she wanted those responsible brought to justice "as soon as possible".
"I want to know who killed my children," she said.
Rebel in eastern Ukraine (9 September 2014) The Russian government denies delivering arms to the separatists
Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak welcomed the report, saying it "leads to the strong suspicion that a surface-to-air missile brought MH17 down".
The rebel leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, Aleksandr Zakharchenko, told the Russian Interfax news agency that the separatists did not have the capability to shoot down the plane.
Ukraine's government and several Western leaders say there is strong evidence that pro-Russian separatists shot down the plane with an anti-aircraft system known as Buk.
Russia has consistently denied allegations that it had supplied any missiles or weapons to the rebels.
The search for evidence has been hampered by heavy fighting in the region, and Malaysian Transport Minister Liow Tiong Lai called on both sides to grant investigators full access.
More than 2,600 people have been killed and thousands more wounded since violence between rebels and Ukrainian government forces erupted in April.

Saturday, September 6, 2014

Ukraine crisis: Ceasefire is 'largely holding'


The BBC's Fergal Keane in Mariupol: "Today the guns are silent"
The Ukrainian and Russian presidents have agreed that a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine is "largely holding".
Ukraine's Petro Poroshenko and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin spoke by phone to discuss steps to make Friday's truce durable.
The comments come despite reports of shootings by both pro-Russian rebels and Ukrainian government troops.
Meanwhile, Russia vowed to respond if the European Union imposed new sanctions over the Ukraine crisis.
The EU says the sanctions, targeting more Russian individuals, will be introduced on Monday but could be later suspended if Russia withdraws troops from eastern Ukraine and observes a current truce.
Russia has repeatedly denied accusations by Ukraine and the West that it has been sending regular troops into eastern Ukraine to help the rebels.
Some 2,600 people have died in fighting after pro-Russian rebels seized towns in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions in April - a month after Russia's annexation of the southern Crimean peninsula.
'Fighters ambushed' In a statement Mr Poroshenko also said that the two presidents had also stressed the need "to maximise the involvement" of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) in monitoring the truce.
A destroyed armoured vehicle near Mariupol, south-eastern Ukraine. Photo: 6 September 2014 Ukrainian forces have been losing ground to the rebels in the past two weeks
A pro-Russian separatist looks through binoculars on the outskirts of Donetsk. Photo: 6 September 2014 Both sides are keeping a watchful eyes on their positions
A woman walks at her destroyed house in the village of Kominternove, eastern Ukraine. Photo: 6 September 2014 Months of heavy clashes have devastated eastern Ukraine, leaving many people homeless
People enjoy the sun on a beach in Mariupol, south-eastern Ukraine. Photo: 6 September 2014 Despite the tensions, some sense of normality appears to be returning to Mariupol
The two leaders also discussed ways of co-operating in delivering humanitarian aid to the region.
In his turn, President Putin said in a statement that an agreement was reached to "continue dialogue".
The ceasefire deal was signed during talks between representatives of Ukraine, Russia, the OSCE and the separatist rebels in Minsk, Belarus.
The truce came into effect at 15:00 GMT on Friday.
There were no reports of major fighting in the east overnight.
However, the spokesman for Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, Andriy Lysenko, said on Saturday that the rebels had fired 10 times on Ukrainian troops since the truce.
Unconfirmed reports also say a number of fighters from Ukraine's Aydar battalion were ambushed and killed after the ceasefire.
Meanwhile, the rebel leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, Aleksandr Zakharchenko, said the truce was "not being fully observed" and that rebels had been subjected to shelling in the town of Amvrosiyivka near Donetsk.
Also the International Committee of the Red Cross said in a tweet: that aid trucks on their way to Lugansk had been forced to turn back by shelling, without giving any further details.
However, the BBC's Fergal Keane tweeted from Mariupol that the ceasefire was holding there.
Our correspondent also spoke to Andriy Biletskiy, the commander of Ukraine's Azov battalion, who said he believed fighting would resume within "five to seven days".
"We will see how the situation develops," he said. "If it was a tactical move there is nothing wrong with it... if it's an attempt to reach an agreement concerning Ukrainian soil with separatists then obviously it's a betrayal."
A BBC crew that travelled to Donetsk airport on Saturday morning heard a few gunshots and small explosions but residents said the night had been quiet.
'Party of war' Earlier on Saturday, the Russian foreign ministry said there "will undoubtedly be a reaction from our side" if the new EU sanctions were passed.
The fresh sanctions would add another 24 to the list of people barred from entering the EU and whose assets have been frozen.
Among them would be the rebel leadership in the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, officials in Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in March, and Russian "decision-makers and oligarchs", European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and European Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso said in a statement.
The Russian foreign ministry said the EU was "practically sending a signal of direct support to the 'party of war' in Kiev".

Friday, September 5, 2014

Al-Qaeda eyes India in jihadi battle of the brands


Indian muslims prepare for pilgrimage to Mecca, 3 September 2014 Despite having 10% of the world's Muslims to recruit from, al-Qaeda has made no headway in India

In the global battle of jihadi brands, Osama Bin Laden's successor appears to be trying to win back ground from Islamic State (IS).
Al-Qaeda has never had any success recruiting from India, despite its huge 180 million-strong Muslim population.
In fact, there has been speculation it never tried too hard in the past for fear of opening up another front with the country's massive Hindu majority.
Which makes Ayman al-Zawahiri's video announcement of a new al-Qaeda wing for the Indian subcontinent look all the more desperate.
But even before IS burst into global consciousness this year with its Iraq blitzkrieg, al-Qaeda in general and Zawahiri in particular had been struggling to fill the vacuum left by Bin Laden's death.
He has not risked breaking his cover for a video appearance in almost two years, doubtless fearful of meeting the same fate at the hands of the Americans.
Osama Bin Laden and Aymen al-Zawahiri during an interview in Afghanistan 8 November 2001 Critics of al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri say he has failed to fill the shoes of Osama Bin Laden
But now al-Qaeda is feeling the pressure from IS in the heart of its old stronghold in the Afghan-Pakistan borderlands.
Several Pakistani-based militant groups previously allied to al-Qaeda have recently pledged allegiance to IS and its goal of an Islamic caliphate.
The group has now reportedly launched a support and recruitment drive in border areas like Peshawar. Booklets in the name of the Dawlat-e-Islamia (Islamic State) have been circulating among the many Afghan refugees living there.
Graffiti, or wall-talk, another guide to sentiments, is also going the group's way, with pro-IS slogans now regularly appearing on Peshawar buildings.
And while Zawahiri's announcement seems primarily aimed at India, the man he named as the new leader of al-Qaeda's South Asia wing, Asim Umar, is reportedly a Pakistani.
There have been reports of an IS recruitment drive in some Indian states too.
And where al-Qaeda failed in India, IS seems to have had some moderate success. In May, it emerged that four young Indian Muslims living near Mumbai had travelled to Iraq to join the group after reportedly being recruited online.
That set off alarm bells in India, with commentators worrying about the country facing the same kind of "blowback" the Middle East and the West has faced from jihadis returning home from Iraq or Afghanistan.
Kashmiri demonstrators holding an Islamic State flag in Srinagar - 18 July 2014 Kashmiri protesters were photographed flying an Islamic State flag at demonstrations in Indian Kashmir
But significantly there has also been a counter-reaction in India to the Islamic State group.
Thousands of Indian Shia Muslims have volunteered to go to Iraq to defend the country and its key Shia shrines from its onslaught.
It's unlikely this volunteer army will ever make it there, as the Indian authorities have barred any citizen from travelling to Iraq without official sanction.
The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not directly reacted to Zawahiri's video message so far, saying it wants to verify it first.
But his long-term response is likely to decide the outcome of this new jihadi struggle for influence in South Asia.
There are plenty of dangers, as the marginalised status of Indian Muslims makes for potentially fertile recruits.
They are among the poorest groups in India, and suffer frequent discrimination in access to jobs and housing.
Indian Muslims praying outside Jama Mosque in new Delhi 29 July 2014 India's marginalised Muslims are a key target of the al-Qaeda recruitment drive
Mr Modi is himself a controversial figure among Indian Muslims because of allegations he failed to prevent an outbreak of anti-Muslim rioting in Gujarat when he was in charge of the state in 2002.
His refusal to show any remorse for what happened is seen by many as a calculated stand to appease his Hindu nationalist supporters.
And Hindu hardliners never miss an opportunity to demonise India's Muslims as a threat.
While there have been attacks claimed by local Muslim extremists they are mostly small scale, and evidence suggests their support comes as much from militants in next door Pakistan as from India.
Since the bloodletting of partition in 1947, India's Muslims have for the most part been Indians first and Muslims second, trusting to the country's secular promises.
But with IS and al-Qaeda in effect choosing India as a new battleground, those ideals could be facing a serious challenge.

Tony Abbott's foreign policy foray


  
Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott holds a press conference following his keynote speech during the B20 Summit on 17 July, 2014 in Sydney, Australia Mr Abbott was not seen as a diplomat heading into the September 2013 election
He's the globetrotting Australian leader who is flexing his diplomatic muscles by branding Russia a "bully" over its actions in Ukraine and comparing Islamic State extremists to a "death cult".
Tony Abbott says Canberra will now send military trainers and advisers to Ukraine, while its aircraft have begun transporting weapons to Kurdish fighters in northern Iraq.
Australia's warplanes are also standing ready to join US airstrikes on Sunni militants.
But as the conservative prime minister revels in a more interventionist foreign policy, there are fears that he risks overstretching his nation's armed forces.
The former trainee priest and Rhodes scholar has seen his global reputation as a straight-talker soar since the shooting down of flight MH17, and the savage advance of Islamist militants in Iraq and Syria.
In the aftermath of the Malaysia Airlines tragedy, in which 38 Australian citizens and residents died, the prime minister quickly blamed pro-Russian separatists for an "unspeakable crime".
Intense lobbying by Mr Abbott and his highly-regarded foreign minister, Julie Bishop, ensured that an Australian-sponsored resolution to allow international investigators free access to the MH17 crash site was passed without opposition by the UN Security Council.
Members of the church share their grief at a memorial service held for victims of the MH17 disaster at St Paul's Cathedral on July 24, 2014 in Melbourne, Australia Thirty-eight Australian citizens and residents lost their lives on board MH17
This week, Mr Abbott is on his 11th overseas trip since comprehensively winning an election a year ago, with stopovers in Mumbai, New Delhi and Kuala Lumpur.
"Unexpectedly, he has transformed from a narrow partisan warrior to a genuine national leader speaking for all of us," wrote Terry Barnes, a social policy consultant and former Abbott advisor.
Gerard Henderson Head of the Sydney Institute
Under-estimated?
Certainly Mr Abbott is rivalling his predecessor Kevin Rudd's zeal for foreign affairs.
The former Labor leader's frequent trips abroad led to the nickname "Kevin 747" and now "Air Abbott" is trying to extend Australia's diplomatic reach even further. A spying row with Indonesia now appears to have been successfully defused and uranium sales to India are at an advanced stage.
Gerard Henderson, head of the conservative think-tank, the Sydney Institute, believes that Mr Abbott is becoming a respected global figure.
"I think he was under-estimated before the election. Some people in Australia didn't take him seriously but on foreign policy, he is well informed," he said. "What he has got going for him is a very strong personality. He holds strong views."
He acknowledged that, on some issues, Mr Abbott was in an easier position than other national leaders.
"It is easier for Australia to speak out than the United States. Tony Abbott does have an ability to make strong comments that perhaps some other nations that are closer to Russia and Ukraine are not able to make."
Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa and his Australian counterpart Julie Bishop pose for photographers as they meet in Jakarta on 5 December, 2013 Australia recently reached a deal with Indonesia to end a row over spying
President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Tony Abbott of Australia meet with reporters following a bilateral meeting in the Oval Office the White House on 12 June, 2014 Australia and the US are long-standing security allies
Underpinning Australia's outspoken forays into international crises is its long-standing security alliance with Washington that dates back to the early 1950s. Without it, the former British colony would feel isolated and vulnerable.
"Much of what Australia can achieve regionally and globally through the use of its military assets is because of its partnership with America - the ability for Australia to project power it couldn't do on its own," said Dr Bates Gill, the head of the US Studies Centre at the University of Sydney.
He was keen to stress, however, that the relationship was not one-sided.
"If anything, Australia is becoming a more important factor for the United States, not just in this region but, as we see, as a partner globally," he said.
'Over-committed' As a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council, the country of 24 million people is asserting its role as an influential middle power, but it is domestic concerns - such as immigration and the economy - that will determine Tony Abbott's fate at the next election due in two year's time.
Unpopular budget measures remain blocked in the upper house of parliament, the Senate. Mr Abbott's forthright response to the downing of the Malaysian plane in Ukraine did see a bounce in opinion polls. Some critics, however, have accused him of cynically manipulating an international tragedy.
"I think the government used the MH17 disaster to effectively deflect people's legitimate concerns about the budget that is going to be attacking their ability to access medical services, rights to education and welfare," said anti-war activist Pip Hinman in Sydney.
Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott poses with crew members of the Boeing C-17 during a visit to the airbase Eindhoven, Netherlands on 11 August 2014 One analyst fears Mr Abbott could over-reach in terms of military deployments
The growing list of military commitments has led to a lengthy debate in the Senate on whether Australia's federal parliament should be required to approve such deployments.
Analysts are also worried the nation could be trying to punch too far above its weight.
"It is hard to understand how a military deployment to Ukraine is in Australia's national interests given that we didn't have diplomatic representation there a month ago," said James Brown, a fellow at the Sydney-based Lowy Institute and former Australian army officer who served in Iraq and Afghanistan,
"There is a real danger now that Tony Abbott finds himself over-committed with his use of military force. He came to power claiming a foreign policy that would be more Jakarta-orientated than Geneva-orientated," he warned.
"Now Australia finds itself contributing soldiers to a European war in Ukraine. It finds itself contemplating contributing significant forces to Iraq and Syria and all the while, we have still got issues in our region that we are responsible for if they flare up."

Ukraine ceasefire talks as West plans Russia sanctions


On the tense frontlines in eastern Ukraine talk of a ceasefire is just that, as Fergal Keane reports
Talks on bringing peace to eastern Ukraine are set to begin, with the conflicting sides seeking agreement on a ceasefire.
Ukraine, Russia and pro-Russia rebels are due to begin afternoon talks in Belarus. However, there are new reports of shelling near the town of Mariupol.
Meanwhile, Western countries are preparing to announce a tightening of sanctions on Russia.
They are attending the second day of a Nato summit in Newport, Wales.
The West accuses Russia of sending arms and troops to back the rebels in eastern Ukraine. Moscow denies this.
More than 2,600 people have died during the five-month conflict.
The enhanced sanctions are expected to target Russian banking, energy and defence, as well as what British sources call "Putin cronies".
But the UK says the sanctions will probably go ahead whether or not a ceasefire is agreed at the talks in the Belarus capital, Minsk.
World leaders participate in an official family photograph ahead of a Nato summit leaders' dinner at Cardiff Castle (4 September 2014) Nato leaders in Wales will be watching closely the outcome of the peace talks in Belarus
Pro-Russian separatists sit on top an armoured personnel carrier near a destroyed tank on a road in the village of Novokaterinovka, some 50km southeast of Donetsk Pro-Russian rebels are widely reported to be forcing the Ukrainian army into retreat in parts of the east
"There is a great degree of scepticism about whether this action will materialise, whether the ceasefire will be real," UK Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said.
"We can always take the sanctions off afterwards. I don't think we want to be distracted from our determination to impose further sanctions in response to Russia's major military adventure into Ukraine by these noises off about a possible ceasefire."
President Poroshenko on Thursday confirmed that there was a chance that a peace deal could be signed in Minsk later on Friday, leading to a ceasefire within hours.
Talks in the Belarusian capital are expected to begin at 14:00 local time (11:00 GMT), Mr Poroshenko said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has also expressed hope that a deal can be agreed.
But Mr Poroshenko was careful not to sound too upbeat.
Ukraine's President Poroshenko: "Stability and security brutally undermined by Russian aggression"
"Ukraine is paying the highest price," the president said, "including lives of soldiers and innocent civilians. As president of Ukraine I must do my best to stop it."
Rebel leaders were cautious as well.
"In the past we had some ceasefire agreements Poroshenko didn't honour," Oleg Tsaryov, a senior rebel official, told Reuters news agency in Donetsk.
How the Ukraine crisis has played out so far - in two minutes
Nato Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen was also careful not to raise hopes.
"Based on experience we have to be cautious," Mr Rasmussen said. "But... if we are witnessing a genuine effort to find a political solution, I would welcome it."
On Wednesday, Mr Putin announced a seven-point plan, including a halt to "active offensive operations" by the Ukrainian military and pro-Russia rebels, international ceasefire monitoring, unconditional prisoner exchanges and humanitarian aid corridors.
Mariupol shelling The fighting on the ground in eastern Ukraine, however, is not abating, especially in areas where Ukrainian forces are under fire from pro-Russian rebels and are being beaten back.
Fighting is continuing near the city of Mariupol on the Azov Sea. Shelling could be heard to the northeast of the city.

Mozambique rivals Dhlakama and Guebuza to sign ceasefire


The leader of Mozambique's armed opposition party Renamo Afonso Dhlakama arrives at Maputo airport 04 September 2014. Afonso Dhlakama has lost every election since 1994
Mozambique President Arnando Guebuza is to sign a ceasefire with ex-rebel leader Afonso Dhlakama, who has returned to the capital for the first time in two years.
Mr Dhlakama flew into Maputo on Thursday after a deal to end two years of conflict was agreed last month.
The Renamo leader, who also fought a 1975-1992 civil war, was accompanied by diplomats for his own protection.
He said he would contest next month's elections.
After winning independence Mozambique's Frelimo fighters became the governing party but were soon pitched into a civil war against rebels backed by neighbouring South Africa. Frelimo and Renamo fought a bitter 15-year civil war
People crossing a tea plantation in Gurue province.  Mozambique agriculture remains underdeveloped. Despite recent progress, many Mozambicans remains stuck in poverty
Mr Dhlakama has contested every poll since the civil war ended but has always lost.
In October 2012, he went into hiding after accusing the government of breaking the terms of the 1992 peace deal.
The low-level insurgency threatened the economic progress Mozambique had made in recent years.
Thousands of Renamo supporters greeted Mr Dhlakama at the airport, reports the AFP news agency.
"On October 15, I want this same crowd," he told them.
"I want you all to vote Afonso Dhlakama, number one and number two Renamo!" he said in reference to the presidential and parliamentary elections.
Mr Guebuza is stepping down after serving two terms and former Defence Minister Felipe Nyusi will be the candidate of the governing Frelimo party.

Thursday, September 4, 2014

Pacific nations agree to slash bluefin catch


TOKYO -- Countries and regions fishing in the Pacific Ocean have agreed to halve catch quotas for juvenile Pacific bluefin tuna from the 2002-04 average, marking a step toward protecting breeding stock that has neared record lows.
     Seven countries and regions, including Japan, South Korea and the U.S., participated in a meeting of a subcommittee of the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission on Thursday, where the agreement was reached. The protection covers Pacific bluefin tuna weighing under 30kg.
     Immature tuna are sold at supermarkets and fishmongers as inexpensive sashimi. Environmentalists have criticized the large-scale catching and consumption of young tuna that have not reached reproductive age.
     Japan, which consumes the bulk of Pacific bluefin, proposed halving catch quotas starting next year. South Korea expressed reservations but ultimately agreed.
     Japan's limit for next year will be set at around 4,000 tons. Since its hauls have not reached that point in recent years, the amount available will remain unchanged, and the effect on prices will likely be minimal.
     "If there are limits, overfishing can be avoided in years when stocks have grown rapidly, and there is an 80%-plus probability that breeding stock will return to the historical median (of 43,000 tons) within 10 years," said the fisheries ministry's Masanori Miyahara, who chaired the meeting.
     The focus will now shift to Mexico, which is not on the commission. Pacific bluefin born in Japanese waters migrate to the Mexican coast. Even if Japan and South Korea limit their catches, these measures will be less effective if Mexico does not follow suit.

Chinese fighters intercepted U.S. aircraft in 3 more incidents: report


WASHINGTON (Kyodo) -- Chinese military jets intercepted U.S. naval aircraft in at least three "provocative" incidents earlier this year in addition to a case Washington made public last week, a U.S. paper said Monday.
     The Wall Street Journal, quoting U.S. officials, said "a rogue pilot or a group of pilots" may have been involved in the "dangerously close encounters" that occurred in international airspace over the South China Sea.
     The U.S. officials do not believe the aggressive flying was directly authorized by the Chinese military, the report said.
     The series of incidents underscore "how deep-seated suspicions remain, despite attempts by some senior officers and political leaders on both sides to build a working relationship," the report said.
     The U.S. government said Friday that it protested to China about a near-miss incident involving military aircraft on Aug. 19 in which a Chinese fighter intercepted a U.S. patrol plane and came within 10 meters of it over the sea.
     A U.S. Defense Department official said Monday that U.S. and Chinese officials will hold two-day talks starting Tuesday on the issue of "rules of behavior for air and maritime activities," probably including last week's incident.
     "This is all about air and maritime stuff, so I'm sure incidents like this are of concern," the Pentagon official told reporters.
     Rear Adm. James Foggo, assistant deputy chief of naval operations, will represent the United States in the bilateral dialogue with China, the official said, without providing information about the Chinese delegation.
     A first round of U.S.-China talks on the issue was held on July 11, the official added.

US, China talk guidelines in wake of jet flyby



WASHINGTON -- American and Chinese officials are debating new rules of military conduct, a task given greater urgency by what the U.S. describes as a close scrape with a fighter jet off the coast of China.
     In this, the second round of talks, the two sides will get down to brass tacks. The latest meeting began Tuesday at the U.S. Department of Defense and will continue through the week.
     The Americans are proposing specific guidelines for how close and in what manner military ships and aircraft approach each other. These could include keeping a minimum distance of around 200 meters in the skies and avoiding threatening approaches.
      Earlier this month, a Chinese fighter jet buzzed a U.S. Navy patrol plane over the South China Sea, coming within 6 meters of the American P-8 Poseidon, according to the Pentagon.
     The U.S. military will continue to conduct reconnaissance flights in international airspace, American officials will tell their Chinese counterparts at the meeting. Rear Adm. John Kirby, the Pentagon press secretary, echoed this position at a news conference Tuesday, stressing the need to fulfill America's security commitments in Asia.
     Following the latest jet intercept, the U.S. has asked China to rein in reckless pilots. There have been at least four such incidents this year.
     Washington is hoping that the bilateral exercise in rule-setting will both call Chinese President Xi Jinping's attention to goings-on in the military and prompt efforts from the armed forces themselves to prevent accidental clashes.
     Back in 2001, a Chinese fighter jet crashed after colliding with a U.S. Navy spy plane, which was forced to make an emergency landing on the island of Hainan. But the rules of behavior created in the wake of that accident, with the aim of preventing another, gradually fell by the wayside through Chinese disregard.
     In recent months, Chinese forces have on notable occasions flouted international norms of behavior in the skies and on the high seas. Last December, a Chinese navy ship cut across the path of the missile ship USS Cowpens, which was traveling in international waters, at a distance of only about 91 meters, forcing it to take evasive action, according to the Pentagon.
     For its part, the Chinese insist that U.S. snooping, both aerial and naval, poses the real danger of a mishap.

Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Something incredible is happening in Scotland. And if the result is a yes vote the shock to the UK will be extreme


The Scots may vote no to independence this time. But history shows these movements intensify until something gives

Alex Salmond
Alex Salmond claimed there would be 80% turnout. Chances are they could be even higher. Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images
You could tell it was getting serious when Gordon Brown made friends with Alistair Darling; and when the Scottish Daily Mail began running doom headlines about the future of the Union. I don't know whether the narrowing of the poll lead for the no campaign was just a blip, but it doesn't feel like it.
Something incredible is happening in Scotland. The little pin badges – Yes or No – that people wear are sparking open conversation: in the pub, the swimming baths, the post office queue. An entire country of 5 million people is asking itself, sometimes quite vociferously, what it wants to be.
It's even more incredible if you consider the possible outcome. If enough people tick the yes box, then come 2016 the flag of Great Britain will have to go minus a whole colour.
It probably won't happen. But few south of the border realise how volatile the outcome is. Yes, the polls reflect bookie William Hill's confidence that there's just a one in five chance of a majority for independence – but the variables are bigger than for most political events.
Having spent last week in Glasgow, I would say the biggest variable is going to be turnout. When political enthusiasm reaches the relatively apolitical world of the council estate, the pub, the nightclub and energises people, turnout can do weird things to poll predictions. Alex Salmond claimed there would be 80% turnout. I think the chances are even higher – and if the polls actually cope with such volume, every percentage point above normal introduces volatility not captured by normal polling.
At the Sub Club, a world-famous nightspot in Glasgow, the debate was remarkably coherent, even at 2am among the intoxicated smokers huddled outside. If I could distil the vox pops among those under-30s to a single thought it would be: "We want to run our own country."
They have heard all the dire macro-economic warnings – about the pound, the banks, the debt, the non-reliability of oil money. Set against the idea of making a clean break with Westminster politics and neoliberal economics, these are risks many of them are prepared to take.
One reason the political class is not hearing the debate properly is that, on each side, there are mismatched political leaderships and tin-eared campaign groups. On the yes side, many of the young people I spoke to despise Alex Salmond. On the no side, it's fair to say Alistair Darling is not hugely representative of a coalition that includes people from the Orange lodges and the Scottish Tories, and the gay clubbers I met who were firm no voters.
If, on the morning of 19 September, we wake up and that 4/1 horse of independence has come in, the levels of shock in official circles will be extreme. The Conservatives will have presided over the breakup of the Union. Even compared with handing Zimbabwe to Zanu-PF, and Hong Kong to the Chinese Communist party, that will be a major psychological moment.
Even more traumatised will be Labour. The prospect of a majority Labour government at Westminster after 2016 will be remote. The party in Scotland will likely go into meltdown, with a Podemos-style left emerging among the pro-independence Labour camp, the Greens and the progressives around groups like Common Weal.
There will be immediate ramifications beyond the UK: in Madrid and Brussels there will be outcry; in Barcelona public joy; in Moscow quiet glee.
But the official narrative does not allow us to consider the possibility of a yes victory. The political class – and I include Salmond's SNP in this – is like the tightroper wobbling on a wire between two skyscrapers. Its members can't allow themselves to think of the consequence of falling off. The old certainties will be so dead anyway that it will scarcely matter.
What we can say, already, is that the no campaign – for all its resilience in the opinion polls – failed in its plan to turn the referendum into an issue of macro-economic risk. If it has worked, it is among the older population and not the majority of the young.
The most coherent of the young people I spoke to understood the macro-economic risk. But they weighed it against two increasingly intolerable burdens: the inability of Scotland's relatively left-leaning electorate to influence Westminster; and the inability to budge Scottish Labour away from the free-market and pro-austerity policies associated with Brown and Darling.
What this means is, even if the yes vote fails on 18 September, scoring somewhere in the mid 40s, the pattern of all future Scottish independence debates is set.
Independence has become a narrative of the people against big government; about an energised Scottish street, bar and nightclub versus the sleazy elite of official politics.
Alistair Darling, leader of the pro-union Better Together campaign Alistair Darling, leader of the Better Together campaign. Photograph: Andrew Milligan/PA And in response, the left part of the pro-union camp has had to develop its own, "more radical than Darling" rationales. It's not something you hear from the Westminster parties, but via social media I have picked up a strong meme among Scottish trade union members that independence under the SNP is "not radical enough to bother".
Once established, political psychologies like this do not go away. History shows they intensify until something gives, and at some point it is usually the borders of a nation state.
What we know already is that a significant number of Scottish people have a dream: where statehood, social justice and cultural self-confidence fit together into a clear and popular project.
The rest of Britain may be stunned, but should not be surprised if the enthusiasm for this dream propels enough people into the voting booths to give the yes camp a narrow victory.
If it happens there'll be a lot of finger pointing, but it's obvious in advance where the biggest problem lies: it's become impossible to express opposition to free market economics via the main Westminster parties.
Some English and Welsh voters think they're doing it by voting Ukip. But the referendum offered Scottish voters a way to do it by destroying the union. Whether you think that's illusory or mistaken, it's formed the narrative on the streets.
That's where we should be watching now; the high-camp shouting match of men in suits is a diversion.

Nato to create high-readiness force to counter Russian threat


Spearhead force will be made up of around 4,000 troops with capacity to 'travel light but strike hard', according to Nato

Anders Fogh Rasmussen
Anders Fogh Rasmussen said the plan was for 'a very high-readiness force able to deploy at very short notice'. Photograph: Olivier Hoslet/EPA
Nato is to create a 4,000-strong "spearhead" high-readiness force that can be deployed rapidly in eastern Europe and the Baltic states to help protect member nations against potential Russian aggression, according to Nato officials.
Leaders from the 28 Nato countries are expected to approve the plan at the alliance's summit in Wales when the Ukraine crisis tops the agenda on Friday.
The Nato secretary-general, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, said the force, drawn on rotational basis from Nato allies, could be in action at "very, very short notice".
Rasmussen described it as a mixture of regular troops and special forces that could "travel light but strike hard". It would be supported by air and naval forces as needed.
He declined to say how many troops would be engaged but Nato officials said it would number around 4,000 and would be expected to deploy to any alliance member country within 48 hours..
"It is so that we are ready should something nasty happen," a senior Nato official said.
Russia is likely to view the creation of the high-readiness force as an aggressive move.
Nato has struggled to find a response to Russia since the Ukraine crisis began in February, beyond increased military exercises in the Baltic states.
One of the biggest criticisms of Nato's response to Russian actions has been its lack of speed and flexibility.
The spearhead force does not help with the immediate crisis in Ukraine, which is facing Russian incursions in the east and south of the country. But the force might have a deterrent effect if Russia was considering destabilising the Baltic states.
Since the annexation of the Crimean peninsula by Russia in March, Poland and other east European and Baltic state members of Nato have demanded the alliance take a more active and high-profile role in their defence.
Other allies, however, have been wary of doing anything that might endanger a 1997 agreement with Moscow under which Nato pledged not to base substantial numbers of soldiers in eastern Europe on a permanent basis.
Officials said that troops would be constantly rotated, in order not to violate the 1997 agreement. However, the constant rotation will in effect mean Nato will have a permanent presence in the Baltic states.
Airfields and seaports in the region could also be upgraded to permit their use by the force, Rasmussen said.
Officials said the creation of the force, formally named the high-readiness joint task force, had been triggered by the Ukrainian crisis and military planners have been working on it since. "Elements of the force should be in place by Christmas," an official said.
Rasmussen said: "These crises can erupt with little warning, move at great speed and they all affect our security in different ways."
The spearhead group is part of an overall Nato plan that "responds to Russia's aggressive behaviour but it equips the alliance to respond to all security challenges wherever they may arrive".
There is already a Nato response force in place. "We will now significantly enhance the responsiveness of our Nato response force. We will develop what I would call a spearhead within our response force – a very high readiness force able to deploy at very short notice. This spearhead would be provided by allies in rotation, and could include several thousand troops, ready to respond where needed with air, sea and special forces support," Rasmussen said.
"This will require reception facilities on Nato territory and pre-positioned equipment and supplies, command and control and logistics experts. So this force can travel light, but strike hard if needed.
"We will also look at possible upgrades to national infrastructure. That could include airfields and ports to support reinforcements, if the need arises. And we will improve our early warning through an upgrade of our intelligence gathering and sharing."
One of the biggest challenges Russia's actions have posed is that Nato is designed for conventional warfare but much of the action in Ukraine has been covert and deniable. The spearhead group will be trained to deal with unconventional actions, from the funding of separatist groups to the use of social media, intimidation and black propaganda.
A Nato spokeswoman said the spearhead force is completely separate from a 10,000-strong British-led joint expeditionary force that is also being proposed. The spearhead group is a purely Nato concept whereas the British expeditionary force, which would be made up of troops from seven nations, could operate with the European Union and other multilateral organisations. The British plan would also have a wider remit, engaged in peacekeeping as well as crisis management.
But a lot of crossover is inevitable as only half-a-dozen of the 28 member Nato countries have the capability to contribute significant military forces. British forces would almost certainly take part in the spearhead group.
The summit will see calls led by US for increased defence spending to confront the Russian threat.
Officials said the spearhead force could be used against other emerging threats in the future. Asked by reporters if the spearhead group might be used against Islamic State in Iraq, a Nato official said it was premature to speculate on that.
The two-day summit in Newport begins on Thursday, with the first day dominated by plans for Afghanistan after combat troops withdraw at the end of the year.

China condemns British inquiry into progress of Hong Kong democracy


Beijing says UK is interfering in Chinese internal affairs and should ‘act with caution’ or risk damaging bilateral relations
Pro-democracy activists clash with police during a protest outside the hotel where Chinese official Li Fei was staying.
Pro-democracy activists clash with police in Hong Kong during a protest against Beijing’s plan to vet candidates for elections in the territory. Photograph: Tyrone Siu/Reuters
Chinese authorities have demanded Britain drop an inquiry into the progress of democratic reforms in Hong Kong, accusing it of “highly inappropriate” interference in its affairs, the BBC has reported.
The broadcaster said it had seen a letter from China’s foreign affairs committee to its British counterpart condemning the probe into the state of democracy since Hong Kong was handed over to Chinese control in 1997.
The report emerged after pro-democracy activists vowed a campaign of civil disobedience over Beijing’s weekend decision to vet candidates for the next leadership election in the former British colony.
Critics have called the restrictive framework a betrayal of Beijing’s promise to award Hong Kong universal suffrage by 2017.
The letter from the Beijing foreign affairs committee said the British probe, announced in July, would be a “highly inappropriate act which constitutes interference in China’s internal affairs”.
It urged lawmakers to “act with caution on the issue of Hong Kong, bear in mind the larger picture of China-UK relations and Hong Kong’s prosperity and stability, stop interfering in Hong Kong’s affairs and cancel the inquiry on UK-Hong Kong relations”.
The deal that handed Hong Kong back to China guaranteed some freedoms and a semi-autonomous status, and the British foreign secretary reports to parliament on the territory every six months.
The chairman of the British foreign affairs committee, which oversees the work of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, told the BBC he wanted to avoid any misunderstanding.
“My job and the foreign affairs select committee’s job is to look at whether Britain has complied with its undertakings and if China has not complied with its obligations,” Richard Ottaway told the BBC.
“I think this is a right and proper procedure. I don’t particularly want to irritate the Chinese. I want them to understand the procedure.
“It may well be that my committee will decide that actually the Chinese have behaved perfectly reasonably.”

Monday, September 1, 2014

Nato rapid response force: Plan to boost Europe presence


Nato Secretary-General Rasmussen: "We must face the reality that Russia does not consider Nato a partner"
Nato is to agree on a rapid response force of several thousand troops to protect Eastern European members against possible Russian aggression, says its secretary general.
Anders Fogh Rasmussen said the force could be deployed within 48 hours.
The new measures are set to be approved at a Nato summit in Wales this week.
It comes after Nato members in eastern and Baltic states voiced concern over Russia's regional ambitions in the wake of the continuing Ukraine crisis.
Mr Rasmussen said military equipment and supplies would be pre-positioned in member states in the east as part of a Readiness Action Plan, enabling the quick deployment of the force.
It would make the Western military alliance a more visible presence in Eastern Europe and "fitter, faster and more flexible to adjust to all kinds of security challenges," he told reporters in Brussels on Monday.
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Analysis - Jonathan Marcus, BBC News, diplomatic correspondent
Ukrainian army servicemen around an armoured vehicle are seen through dust raised by passing vehicles near Debaltseve, Donetsk region, on 29 August 2014. Ukraine has asked for more military supplies from Nato to help deal with pro-Russia separatists in the east
In response to the Ukraine crisis, Nato is to establish a new rapidly deployable "spearhead" force capable of being deployed within a matter of only two days.
This is all part of a much wider overhaul of Nato's response forces which Nato officials say is not solely linked to Ukraine; it will be capable of deploying anywhere within the alliance to give immediate reassurance and a demonstration of alliance resolve.
For such a force to be effective there will have to be regular exercises and Nato officials note that headquarters and other so-called "enablers" - key logistics elements for example - will need to be based closer to areas of potential threat - for that read closer to Nato's eastern and southern borders. Fuel stocks and ammunition may also need to be pre-positioned further east.
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The Nato chief insisted that the plans would not breach the 1997 Nato-Russia Founding Act, which forbids the presence of permanent bases in eastern and central Europe.
Mr Rasmussen said the new measures were being taken "not because Nato wants to attack anyone but because the dangers and the threats are more present and more visible... we will do what it takes to defend our allies".
The proposed force would be composed of several thousand troops from 28 Nato members on a rotating basis, Mr Rasmussen told reporters in Brussels.
The two-day summit in Newport, which starts on Thursday, is expected to be dominated by the Ukraine crisis

Ukraine war pulls in foreign fighters


Spanish volunteer Rafa Munoz Perez practising with a rifle in Donetsk, 7 August Rafa Munoz Perez, a Spaniard serving with the rebels in Donetsk, wears a Spanish Republic wristband
French, Spanish, Swedish or Serb, the foreigners fighting for both sides in east Ukraine's bloody conflict hail from across Europe and come with a bewildering array of agendas.
The non-mercenaries among them are motivated by causes which can stretch back to the wars in the former Yugoslavia - and even further still, to the Spanish Civil War of the 1930s.
Russia is the elephant in the room, dwarfing any other foreign nationality, although it is increasingly hard to disentangle Russians fighting as volunteers from regular soldiers allegedly deployed on covert missions.
Ukraine's pro-Russian rebels like to talk up their foreign volunteer fighters, presenting them as latter-day International Brigades fighting "fascism". Meanwhile there has been some debate in Kiev on the wisdom of creating a Ukrainian "Foreign Legion".
Here we look at some of the foreign fighters by country of origin, in a phenomenon which, in a small way, mirrors that of young Muslims from Britain and other parts of Europe travelling to the Middle East to fight in its wars.
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Russia It is no secret that Russian citizens have occupied senior posts among the rebels, the most famous of them being Igor "Strelkov" Girkin, who reportedly held the rank of reserve colonel in Russia's Federal Security Service as late as last year.
Hopes of any real progress seem to be diminishing, as Nick Childs reports
There is strong evidence that rank-and-file Russian fighters have entered east Ukraine to join the rebels, but whether they are volunteers making common cause with ethnic Russians in Luhansk and Donetsk, or mercenaries, is a grey area.
Rebel leader Alexander Zakharchenko has stated publicly that between 3.000 and 4,000 Russian "volunteers" have fought for the rebels since the start of the uprising in April.
"There are also many in the current Russian military that prefer to spend their leave among us, brothers who are fighting for their freedom, rather than on a beach," he said on 28 August.
Chechen fighter Ruslan Arsayev Chechen fighter Ruslan Arsayev
Evidence has mounted that regular Russian soldiers are involved, with 10 paratroopers captured inside Ukraine and indirect evidence of military casualties at home in Russia.
Chechens, both from Russia's Republic of Chechnya and from the anti-Russian diaspora living in exile, are believed to be involved on both sides of the conflict, but predominantly fighting for the rebels.
A gunman who presented himself as a Chechen called Ruslan Arsayev told the Mashable news website in an interview he was fighting for Ukraine because he wouldn't "bend over for Putin".
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At the scene: Oliver Carroll, journalist working in Ukraine
A number of foreign fighters serve in the Aidar volunteer battalion currently fighting in east Ukraine. Chechen Ruslan Arsayev is perhaps the most colourful example. An army veteran of six military campaigns, Ruslan came to Ukraine to fight during the Maidan revolution. He was injured twice, once seriously, when a bullet punctured his lung.
He comes from a well-known family of warriors. One of his brothers was security minister in Aslan Maskhadov's rebel government. Another was convicted of hijacking a plane en route to Moscow in 2001, an action that resulted in the loss of three lives.
At the Aidar base near Luhansk, Ruslan explained he had come to Ukraine because of Putin. "Putin has turned my home into Stalin's Russia, with a dozen informants on every street," he said. He wasn't prepared to accept Putin's rule, and predicted an uprising in Chechnya in the "very, very near" future.
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France Some 20 French citizens have gone to Ukraine to fight on both sides, French public radio station France Info said in a report (in French) on 11 August.
Four of them, including two former soldiers, went to Donetsk to fight for the rebels. They were filmed by Russian newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda posing with guns.
Their spokesman is Victor Lenta, 25, who earlier told France's Le Monde newspaper (article in French) he had been a corporal in the Third Marine Infantry Paratroop Regiment and had served in Afghanistan, Ivory Coast and Chad. Another member of the group is Nikola Perovic, also 25 and with Serbian ancestry, who likewise reportedly fought in Afghanistan as a corporal in France's 13th Mountain Infantry Battalion.
Former soldier Nikola Perovic holds up a French flag in southern Donetsk region, 11 August (photo given to journalist Pierre Sautreil) The French group gave Le Monde journalist Pierre Sautreil a photo of Nikola Perovic holding up a French flag in the southern Donetsk region on 11 August
They told Le Monde they were the founders of an ultra-nationalist movement called Continental Unity, which has organised demonstrations in France and Serbia in support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Serbian war crimes suspect Vojislav Seselj.
In their view, according to Le Monde, Russia is the final bulwark against liberal globalisation which they consider "responsible for the decline in national values and loss of French sovereignty".
Their main role among the rebels, apparently, is to provide combat training for recruits from West European countries.
Gaston Besson, on the other hand, has been fighting for the Ukrainian government as a member of its Azov volunteer battalion, a unit known for its far-right associations.
Aged 47, he nonetheless describes himself as a "leftwing revolutionary", according to France Info. Reported to be a former paratrooper, he is said to have fought in previous conflicts ranging from Croatia to Colombia
He is known for his efforts to recruit other foreigners and, according to a Eurasianet article, wrote in June: "Every day I receive dozens of requests to join us by email, especially from countries like Finland, Norway and Sweden."
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At the scene: Pierre Sautreuil, French journalist working in Ukraine
I met the French volunteers for the first time on 9 July in a bar in Budapest, Hungary. Up until then, our exchanges by phone had been brief and their answers evasive.
The rules for this first meeting were simple: they pose the questions. They feared I might be a French intelligence agent. "We can't trust you yet."
After a long series of questions about my background, and my opinions on the Ukrainian crisis, they asked for my passport and photographed it several times.
"We have nothing but enemies in intelligence," one of them told me, handing back my passport. We said our goodbyes.
Next day I got a phone call: "Our friends have completed their little investigation. You're clean. We'll meet at 19:00." And thus began my investigation.
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Spain For two Spanish leftists, the conflict in east Ukraine represents a chance to repay what they see as a historic favour.
Angel Davilla-Rivas (C) and Rafa Munoz Perez (R) in Donetsk, 7 August Angel Davilla-Rivas (C) and Rafa Munoz Perez (R) in Donetsk
Angel Davilla-Rivas told Reuters news agency he had come with his comrade Rafa Munoz Perez to fight for the rebels in recognition of the Soviet Union's support for the Republican side in the Spanish Civil War.
Mr Munoz, 27, is a former social worker from Madrid who has been a member of the youth wing of the United Left political movement since 2010, Spain's El Pais newspaper said in an article. His friend, 22, is from Murcia and belongs to the youth wing of a branch of the Spanish Communist Party, the paper added.
Mr Davilla-Rivas showed off tattoos of Soviet leaders Vladimir Lenin and Joseph Stalin on his torso.
"I am the only son, and it hurts my mother and father and my family a lot that I am putting myself at risk. But... I can't sleep in my bed knowing what's going on here," he told Reuters.
There are also reports of Spaniards fighting on the government side, according to an article in the Kyiv Post.
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Serbia Dozens of Serbs are believed to be fighting for the rebels, ostensibly drawn by an ethnic and nationalist sense of solidarity with the region's Russian Orthodox Christians and residual hostility towards Nato, regarding the Ukrainian government as its proxy.
However, Belgrade-based security expert Zoran Dragisic told German broadcaster Deutsche Welle in a report that Serbian fighters were primarily fighting as mercenaries and could be found on both sides in Ukraine.
"It's indoctrination that draws young people - some of them almost children - to war," he said.
Meanwhile, there are moves within Serbia to stem the flow of fighters heading east with a law that penalises participation in a foreign war.
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Sweden
Mikael Skillt inside an armoured car
In an interview with the BBC's Dina Newman, a Swedish sniper with far-right views, Mikael Skillt, said he was fighting for the Ukrainian government because he believed in the "survival of white people". Like France's Gaston Besson, he is a member of the Azov battalion.
"I would be an idiot if I said I did not want to see survival of white people," he said. "After World War Two, the victors wrote their history. They decided that it's always a bad thing to say I am white and I am proud."
At the same time, he added that he planned eventually to fight for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad because he believed Mr Assad was standing up to "international Zionism".
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Poland Reports that Poles were fighting in Ukraine prompted the government in Warsaw to formally deny that Polish citizens were fighting as mercenaries for the Ukrainian government. It went on to warn that any Poles who go there to fight could face jail upon their return, Deutsche Welle reports.
Leonid Smolinski, a 49-year-old Polish citizen born in Ukraine, was killed in a rebel ambush on 12 August while serving in Ukraine's Dnipro volunteer battalion, according to Euromaidan Press.
At least one Pole has also sided with the rebels. In a speech in the rebel capital Donetsk, carried by radical Polish website xportal, Bartosz Becker described himself as a representative of "Polish free people who are against Nato terrorist bases in Poland".
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Germany Margarita Zeidler is a former nurse who moved to Ukraine in 2002 for religious reasons after converting to the Russian Orthodox Church, according to an interview with Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper (in Russian).
Dismayed by events in Kiev during the Maidan uprising over the winter she moved initially to Crimea, then to Donetsk region, she said, after one of her friends was shot dead there in May. She became the rebels' information officer in Sloviansk during its siege by government forces.
While she describes herself as a journalist, she told the newspaper that she always keeps an assault rifle "within reach".
Speaking in Russian in a video posted on YouTube on 11 August, she said she could not "stand by and watch Ukrainian fascists kill civilians".
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USA
Despite rebel allegations to the contrary, there is little evidence of American volunteer involvement on the ground. The exception was a Ukrainian-American called Mark Gregory Paslawsky, who had taken Ukrainian citizenship.
Paslawsky, or Franko as he liked to be known, was killed fighting for the Ukrainian government side in the embattled town of Ilovaisk. In an interview for Vice News, the 55-year-old West Point graduate and investment banker from New York had explained he wanted ultimately to help root out corruption in Ukraine, saying "the political elite has to be destroyed here".
Russian media suggest that there are US citizens fighting for the rebels too.
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Italy Francesco F, 53, enrolled in the Azov battalion to "fight a good fight against Russia", the Italian weekly Panorama reported in an article (in Italian) in June.
Already doing business in Ukraine two years before the violence erupted, he said he had "found his home alongside Ukrainian nationalists" on the Maidan barricades.
Francesco, who also featured in a video report by Il Giornale, has a past in the far right in Italy, according to Panorama.
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Other countries Other nationalities are reportedly involved in the conflict, probably in small numbers.
Citizens of Georgia, Belarus, Baltic states, Finland, Norway, Canada, Croatia, Slovenia and the Czech Republic, as well as Russia, are said to be involved as volunteers on the government side.
Rebel leader Alexander Zakharchenko said on 17 August that his foreign volunteers also included a number of Turks and Romanians.