The death toll has passed 2,000 and shows every sign of getting worse
This isn't just the worst single Ebola outbreak in history, it has now killed more than all the others combined.
Healthcare workers are visibly struggling, the response to
the outbreak has been damned as "lethally inadequate" and the situation
is showing signs of getting considerably worse.
The outbreak has been running all year, but the latest in an
ongoing stream of worrying statistics shows 40% of all the deaths have
been in just the past three weeks.
So what can we expect in the months, and possibly years, to come?
Taking off
Crystal ball gazing can be a dangerous affair.
Particularly as this is uncharted territory, previous
outbreaks have been rapidly contained, affecting just dozens of people,
this one has already infected more than 3,900.
But the first clues are in the current data.
Dr Christopher Dye, the director of strategy in the office of
the director general at the World Health Organization, has the
difficult challenge of predicting what will happen next.
He told the BBC: "We're quite worried, I have to say, about the latest data we've just gathered."
Man outside his home just outside the Liberian capital Monrovia
Up until a couple of weeks ago the outbreak was raging in
Liberia especially close to the epicentre of the outbreak in Lofa County
and in the capital Monrovia.
However, the two other countries primarily hit by the
outbreak, Sierra Leone and Guinea, had been relatively stable. Numbers
of new cases were not falling, but they were not soaring either.
That is no longer true, with a surge in cases everywhere
except some parts of rural Sierra Leone in the districts of Kenema and
Kailahun.
"In most other areas, cases and deaths appear to rising, that came as a shock to me," said Dr Dye.
Cumulative deaths - up to 5 September
Only going up
The stories of healthcare workers being stretched beyond breaking point are countless.
A lack of basic protective gear such as gloves has been widely reported.
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“Start Quote
If current trends persist we would be
seeing not hundreds of cases per week, but thousands of cases per week
and that is terribly disturbing”
Dr Christopher Dye
World Health Organization
The charity Medecins Sans
Frontieres has an isolation facility with 160 beds in Monrovia. But it
says the queues are growing and they need another 800 beds to deal with
the number of people who are already sick.
This is not a scenario for containing an epidemic, but fuelling one.
Dr Dye's tentative forecasts are grim: "At the moment we're
seeing about 500 new cases each week, those numbers appear to be
increasing.
"I've just projected about five weeks into the future and if
current trends persist we would be seeing not hundreds of cases per
week, but thousands of cases per week and that is terribly disturbing.
"The situation is bad and we have to prepare for it getting worse"
The World Health Organization is using an educated guess of
20,000 cases before the end, in order to plan the scale of the response.
But the true potential of the outbreak is unknown and the WHO figure has been described to me as optimistic by some scientists.
International spread?
The outbreak started in Gueckedou in Guinea, on the border with Liberia and Sierra Leone.
But it has spread significantly with the WHO reporting that "for the first time since the outbreak began" that the
majority of cases in the past week were outside of that epicentre with the capital cities becoming major centres of Ebola.
Additionally one person
took the infection to Nigeria, where it has since spread in a small cluster and there
has been an isolated case in Senegal.
Prof Simon Hay, from the University of Oxford, will publish
his scientific analysis of the changing face of Ebola outbreaks in the
next week.
He warns that as the total number of cases increases, so does the risk of international spread.
He told me: "I think you're going to have more and more of
these individual cases seeding into new areas, continued flows into
Senegal, Cote d'Ivoire, and all the countries in between, so I'm not
very optimistic at the moment that we're containing this epidemic."
Children watch as another dead body is taken from their village
There is always the risk that one of these cases could arrive in Europe or north America.
However, richer countries have the facilities to prevent an isolated case becoming an uncontrolled outbreak.
The worry is that other African countries with poor resources
would not cope and find themselves in a similar situation to Guinea,
Liberia and Sierra Leone.
"Nigeria is the one I look at with great concern, if things
started to get out of control in Nigeria I really think that, because of
its connectedness and size, that could be quite alarming," said Prof
Hay.
End game?
It is also unclear when this outbreak will be over.
Officially the World Health Organization is saying the
outbreak can be contained in six to nine months. But that is based on
getting the resources to tackle the outbreak, which are currently
stretched too thinly to contain Ebola as it stands.
There have been nearly 4,000 cases so far, cases are
increasing exponentially and there is a potentially vulnerable
population in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea in excess of 20 million.
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Ebola casualties
Up to 5 September
Getty
Prof Neil Ferguson, the director of the
UK Medical Research Council's centre for outbreak analysis and modelling
at Imperial College London is providing data analysis for the World
Health Organization.
He is convinced that the three countries will eventually get
on top of the outbreak, but not without help from the rest of the world.
"The authorities are completely overwhelmed, all the trends
are the epidemic is increasing, it's still growing exponentially, so
there's certainly no reason for optimism.
"It is hard to make a long-term prognosis, but this is certainly something we'll be dealing with in 2015.
"I can well imagine that unless there is a ramp-up of the
response on the ground, we'll have flair ups of cases for several months
and possibly years."
It is certainly a time-frame which could see an experimental
Ebola vaccine, which began safety testing this week, being used on the
front line.
If the early trials are successful then healthcare workers could be vaccinated in November this year.
Here forever
But there are is also a fear being raised by some virologists that Ebola may never be contained.
Prof Jonathan Ball, a virologist at the University of Nottingham, describes the situation as "desperate".
His concern is that the virus is being given its first major
opportunity to adapt to thrive in people, due to the large number of
human to human transmission of the virus during this outbreak of
unprecedented scale.
Ebola is thought to come from fruit bats, humans are not its preferred host.
But like HIV and influenza, Ebola's genetic code is a strand
of RNA. Think of RNA as the less stable cousin of DNA, which is where we
keep out genetic information.
It means Ebola virus has a high rate of mutation and with mutation comes the possibility of adapting.
Prof Ball argues: "It is increasing exponentially and the fatality rate seems to be decreasing, but why?
"Is it better medical care, earlier intervention or is the
virus adapting to humans and becoming less pathogenic? As a virologist
that's what I think is happening."
There is a relationship between how deadly a virus is and how
easily it spreads. Generally speaking if a virus is less likely to kill
you, then you are more likely to spread it - although smallpox was a
notable exemption.
Prof Ball said "it really wouldn't surprise me" if Ebola
adapted, the death rate fell to around 5% and the outbreak never really
ended.
"It is like HIV, which has been knocking away at human to
human transmission for hundreds of years before eventually finding the
right combo of beneficial mutations to spread through human
populations."